** WTPQ20 BABJ 081800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 081800 UTC 00HR 11.2N 127.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 260KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 12.0N 122.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 12.7N 117.9E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 13.4N 114.6E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 081800 *** WARNING 081800. WARNING VALID 091800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0622 UTOR (0622) 975 HPA AT 10.7N 127.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 11.1N 125.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 11.2N 122.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 11.2N 118.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 11.2N 116.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 081800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 081800UTC 10.7N 127.5E FAIR MOVE W 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 091800UTC 11.2N 122.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 101800UTC 11.2N 118.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 111800UTC 11.2N 116.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 081800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME STS 0622 UTOR ANALYSIS POSITION 081800UTC 10.7N 127.5E MOVEMENT W 15KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 091800UTC 11.5N 122.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 48HR POSITION 101800UTC 11.5N 118.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 111800UTC 11.6N 116.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT80 EGRR 081900 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.12.2006 NO TROPICAL STORMS ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE MODEL IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 081900 ** WTPN31 PGTW 082100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (UTOR) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 127.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 127.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 11.6N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 12.1N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 12.6N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 13.1N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 13.8N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.9N 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 13.6N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 126.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. // ** WTPH RPLL 081800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 07 AT 1800 08 DECEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM UTOR (0622) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 10.8N 127.9E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 31MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN300KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CICLE 250KMS RAADIUS ELSEWHERE FOREAST POSITIONS AT 091800 11.6NORTH 122.8E AT 101800 12.2N 119.1E AND AT 111800 12.5N 115.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 081800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 07 AT 1800 08 DECEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (UTOR)(0622) WAS ESTIAMTED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 091800 ONE ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT EIGHT EAST AT 101800 ONE TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE EAST AND AT 111800 ONE TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 082100 *** WARNING 082100. WARNING VALID 092100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0622 UTOR (0622) 975 HPA AT 10.7N 127.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 130 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 11.2N 124.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 11.2N 122.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 082100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 082100UTC 10.7N 127.2E FAIR MOVE W 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM NORTH 130NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 092100UTC 11.2N 122.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 101800UTC 11.2N 118.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 111800UTC 11.2N 116.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT =