** WTPQ20 BABJ 080600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 080600 UTC 00HR 10.6N 130.2E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 260KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 11.5N 125.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 12.1N 120.6E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 12.6N 118.5E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 080600 *** WARNING 080600. WARNING VALID 090600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0622 UTOR (0622) 990 HPA AT 10.6N 130.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 18 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 11.0N 124.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 11.2N 120.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 11.6N 117.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 080600UTC 10.6N 130.2E FAIR MOVE W 18KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 090600UTC 11.0N 124.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 100600UTC 11.2N 120.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 110600UTC 11.6N 117.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTKO20 RKSL 080600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0622 UTOR ANALYSIS POSITION 080600UTC 10.6N 130.2E MOVEMENT W 18KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 090600UTC 11.4N 124.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 48HR POSITION 100600UTC 11.7N 119.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 110600UTC 12.0N 116.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 080600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0622 UTOR (0622) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 080600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 12 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 080900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (UTOR) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 11.1N 130.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 130.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 11.6N 127.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 12.1N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 12.5N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 12.9N 120.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 14.1N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.6N 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.4N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 129.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 080600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 05AT 0600 08 DECEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM UTOR (0622) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FRM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRALPRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTE3R ONE THREE METER PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZEROKIOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAT POSITIONS AT 090600 ONE ONE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST AT 100600 ONE ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWOZERO POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 110600 ONE TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATEHR REPORTS TOWEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTJP31 RJTD 080900 *** WARNING 080900. WARNING VALID 090900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0622 UTOR (0622) 990 HPA AT 10.6N 129.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 11.0N 123.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 080900UTC 10.6N 129.5E FAIR MOVE W 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 090900UTC 11.0N 123.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 100600UTC 11.2N 120.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 110600UTC 11.6N 117.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 080953 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM UTOR (25W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST FRI DEC 8 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM UTOR (25W) MOVING AWAY FROM PALAU... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM UTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 415 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOROR 575 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 1020 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM UTOR IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. TROPICAL STORM UTOR IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM UTOR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 129.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR TROPICAL STORM UTOR. $$ HENDRICKS