** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 120800 UTC 00HR 10.4N 131.7E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 260KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 11.3N 128.2E 988HPA 25M/S P+48HR 12.1N 123.8E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 12.5N 120.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 080000UTC 10.3N 131.6E FAIR MOVE W 18KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 090000UTC 10.9N 126.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 100000UTC 11.6N 122.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 110000UTC 12.2N 119.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 080000 *** WARNING 080000. WARNING VALID 090000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0622 UTOR (0622) 990 HPA AT 10.3N 131.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 18 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 10.9N 126.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 11.6N 122.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 12.2N 119.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS UTOR 0623 (0622) INITIAL TIME 080000 UTC 00HR 10.4N 131.7E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 260KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 11.3N 128.2E 988HPA 25M/S P+48HR 12.1N 123.8E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 12.5N 120.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 080000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0622 UTOR (0622) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 080000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 080300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (UTOR) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 10.6N 132.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 132.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 11.1N 129.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 11.6N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 11.9N 124.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 12.1N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 12.6N 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 13.1N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 13.7N 112.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 131.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST- WARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 080300 *** WARNING 080300. WARNING VALID 090300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0622 UTOR (0622) 990 HPA AT 10.4N 130.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 11.0N 125.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 080300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0622 UTOR (0622) ANALYSIS PSTN 080300UTC 10.4N 130.6E FAIR MOVE W 20KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 090300UTC 11.0N 125.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 100000UTC 11.6N 122.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 110000UTC 12.2N 119.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPH RPLL 080000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 04 AT 0000 08 DECEMBER TROPICAL STORM 'UTOR' (0622) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METER PER SECOND WITHIN TRHEE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 090000 ONE ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE EAST AT 100000 ONE ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ONE EAST AND AT 110000 ONE TWO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ31 PGUM 080405 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM UTOR (25W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST FRI DEC 8 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM UTOR (25W) MOVING AWAY FROM PALAU... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM UTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL 310 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOROR 380 MILES NORTH OF SONSOROL 450 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NGULU 465 MILES WEST OF YAP TROPICAL STORM UTOR IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. TROPICAL STORM UTOR IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM UTOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 131.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE