** WTIN20 DEMS 070612 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST AND SOUTH WEST ARABIAN SEA AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA(.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14.0 DEG N OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 070600UTC 09.1N 135.8E POOR MOVE W 06KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 080600UTC 09.7N 132.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.1N 135.8E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070600 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 070900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 135.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 135.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 10.0N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 10.5N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 10.8N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 11.0N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 11.2N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 134.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS WILL BE REACHED JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48, BEFORE TD 25W MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE PHIL- IPPINES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 070900UTC 09.2N 135.4E POOR MOVE W 06KT PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 080900UTC 09.9N 131.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 070600 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0600 07 DECEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE FIVE POINT NINE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECONED MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 080600 ONE ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 090600 ONE ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 100600 ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 070957 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST THU DEC 7 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W MOVING AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES WEST OF YAP 165 MILES NORTH OF KOROR 110 MILES NORTH OF KAYANGEL AND 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM FRIDAY MORNING GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTPQ32 PGUM 071011 RRA *** TCPPQ2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST THU DEC 7 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W MOVING AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES WEST OF YAP 165 MILES NORTH OF KOROR 110 MILES NORTH OF KAYANGEL AND 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM FRIDAY MORNING GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO