** WTSR20 WSSS 061800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 070000UTC 09.1N 136.6E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 080000UTC 09.1N 133.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.1N 136.6E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 070300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061451Z DEC 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 8.7N 136.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 136.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 8.9N 133.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 9.6N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 9.9N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 10.1N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 10.3N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 136.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 062053Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 061451Z DEC 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 061500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 070335 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 PM GUAM LST THU DEC 7 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W FORMS SOUTHWEST OF YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 155 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP 145 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR 675 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS MOVING WEST AT 18 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 136.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 18 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ20 RJTD 070300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 070300UTC 09.1N 136.1E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1006HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 080300UTC 09.4N 133.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT =