** WTSR20 WSSS 041800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 050000 UTC 00HR 10.3N 106.9E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WSW 20KM/H P+24HR 9.3N 102.1E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 9.3N 97.7E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 050000 *** WARNING 050000. WARNING VALID 060000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985 HPA AT 10.0N 107.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 09.0N 102.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 08.4N 098.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 050000UTC 10.0N 107.0E FAIR MOVE WSW 14KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060000UTC 09.0N 102.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 070000UTC 08.4N 098.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.19 FOR STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 050145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS. AT 050000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (10.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 050145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS. AT 050000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (10.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPN31 PGTW 050300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 038 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 10.0N 106.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 106.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 9.4N 104.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 9.1N 101.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 9.4N 98.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 10.1N 96.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 12.0N 91.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 106.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z. // ** WTPQ20 RJTD 050300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 050300UTC 09.7N 106.2E FAIR MOVE WSW 13KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060300UTC 08.9N 101.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 10KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 070000UTC 08.4N 098.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 050300 *** WARNING 050300. WARNING VALID 060300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 992 HPA AT 09.7N 106.2E VIETNAM MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 08.9N 101.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=