** WTPQ20 BABJ 041800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 041800 UTC 00HR 10.4N 108.4E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WSW 20KM/H P+24HR 9.6N 103.5E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 041800 *** WARNING 041800. WARNING VALID 051800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 10.4N 108.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 09.5N 104.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 08.8N 101.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 041800UTC 10.4N 108.4E FAIR MOVE WSW 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 160NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 051800UTC 09.5N 104.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 061800UTC 08.8N 101.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 041800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18 NAME STS 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 041800UTC 10.4N 108.4E MOVEMENT WSW 13KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 051800UTC 9.7N 104.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 061800UTC 9.1N 101.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1004HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 041945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 041800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (10.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (9.3 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 041945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 041800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (10.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (9.3 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPN31 PGTW 042100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 037 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 10.4N 108.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 108.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 9.5N 105.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 9.1N 103.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 9.4N 100.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 10.1N 98.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 10.9N 93.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 107.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 72 HOURS TO REFLECT A SLOWER DISSIPATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. // ** WTJP31 RJTD 042100 *** WARNING 042100. WARNING VALID 052100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 970 HPA AT 10.2N 107.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 09.5N 104.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 042100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 042100UTC 10.2N 107.6E FAIR MOVE WSW 14KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 160NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 052100UTC 09.5N 104.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 061800UTC 08.8N 101.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 042245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 042100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (10.2 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (9.2 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (102.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 042245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 042100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (10.2 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (9.2 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (102.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA.