** WTSR20 WSSS 040600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC 00HR 11.2N 109.3E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 10.3N 106.8E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 041200 *** WARNING 041200. WARNING VALID 051200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 980 HPA AT 10.8N 109.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 10.1N 106.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 09.7N 102.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 041200UTC 10.8N 109.7E FAIR MOVE SW 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 051200UTC 10.1N 106.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 061200UTC 09.7N 102.1E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 041345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 041200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (11.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (10.3 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (104.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 041345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 041200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (11.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (10.3 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (104.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 041345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 041200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (11.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (10.3 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (104.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPN31 PGTW 041500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 036 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 11.0N 109.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 109.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 9.5N 107.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 9.0N 104.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 9.0N 101.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 9.2N 99.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 108.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 48 HOURS TO REFLECT A SLOWER DISSIPATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.// BT #0001 ** WTJP31 RJTD 041500 *** WARNING 041500. WARNING VALID 051500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 975 HPA AT 10.7N 109.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 110 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 10.0N 105.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 041500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 041500UTC 10.7N 109.2E FAIR MOVE SW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 160NM NORTH 110NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 051500UTC 10.0N 105.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 061200UTC 09.7N 102.1E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 041645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 041500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (10.7 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051500 UTC NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (9.5 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (104.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 041645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 041500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (10.7 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051500 UTC NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (9.5 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (104.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA.