** WTIN20 DEMS 040602 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 12.0 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 11.7N 110.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 10.5N 107.3E 998HPA 18M/S P+48HR 10.1N 104.6E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 11.7N 110.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 10.5N 107.3E 998HPA 18M/S P+48HR 10.1N 104.6E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 040600 *** WARNING 040600. WARNING VALID 050600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 980 HPA AT 11.7N 110.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 10.8N 106.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 10.8N 102.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 040600UTC 11.7N 110.5E FAIR MOVE SW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 050600UTC 10.8N 106.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 060600UTC 10.8N 102.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 040600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17 NAME STS 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 040600UTC 11.7N 110.5E MOVEMENT SW 12KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 050600UTC 10.5N 107.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 060600UTC 9.9N 103.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1004HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.18 FOR STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 040745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 040600 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (11.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 140 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 110 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 170 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 140 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (10.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (105.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 040745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 040600 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (11.8 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 140 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 110 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 170 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 140 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (10.8 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (105.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPN31 PGTW 040900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 035 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 24W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 110.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 110.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 10.8N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 10.2N 105.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 109.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST- WARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 040900 *** WARNING 040900. WARNING VALID 050900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 980 HPA AT 11.3N 110.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 10.6N 106.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 040900UTC 11.3N 110.0E FAIR MOVE WSW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 050900UTC 10.6N 106.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 060600UTC 10.8N 102.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 041045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (11.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (10.7 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (105.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 041045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (11.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (10.7 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (105.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA.