** WTSR20 WSSS 031800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 12.8N 111.4E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 250KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 11.4N 108.4E 995HPA 20M/S P+48HR 10.5N 105.6E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 040000UTC 12.8N 111.4E FAIR MOVE WSW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 050000UTC 11.4N 107.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 060000UTC 11.1N 103.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 040000 *** WARNING 040000. WARNING VALID 050000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 970 HPA AT 12.8N 111.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 11.4N 107.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 11.1N 103.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 040145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040000 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (11.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 040145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040000 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (11.0 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTPN31 PGTW 040300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 111.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 111.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 11.8N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 11.3N 108.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 10.9N 106.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 111.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 040300 *** WARNING 040300. WARNING VALID 050300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 975 HPA AT 12.0N 111.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING SOUTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 11.0N 107.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 040300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 040300UTC 12.0N 111.1E FAIR MOVE SW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 30NM 30KT 200NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 050300UTC 11.0N 107.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 060000UTC 11.1N 103.4E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 040445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040300 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (12.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (10.9 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTSS20 VHHH 040445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040300 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (12.4 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (10.9 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA.