** WTPQ20 BABJ 031800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 031800 UTC 00HR 13.3N 112.3E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WSW 15KM/H P+24HR 12.0N 108.7E 980HPA 28M/S P+48HR 11.1N 105.4E 995HPA 18M/S P+72HR 10.8N 100.9E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 031800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 031800UTC 13.1N 112.0E GOOD MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 140NM SOUTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 041800UTC 11.4N 108.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 051800UTC 11.1N 104.5E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP21 RJTD 031800 *** WARNING 031800. WARNING VALID 041800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 960 HPA AT 13.1N 112.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 11.4N 108.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 11.1N 104.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 031800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16 NAME TY 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 031800UTC 13.1N 112.0E MOVEMENT WSW 9KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 041800UTC 11.7N 108.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 051800UTC 11.2N 105.3E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 032100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 033 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 112.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 112.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 12.3N 110.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 11.7N 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 11.2N 107.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 10.9N 105.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 111.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 031945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 031800 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (11.2 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (9.9 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (102.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 031945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 031800 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (11.2 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (9.9 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (102.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTJP31 RJTD 032100 *** WARNING 032100. WARNING VALID 042100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 960 HPA AT 12.9N 111.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 11.3N 108.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 032100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 032100UTC 12.9N 111.6E FAIR MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTHWEST 140NM SOUTHEAST FORECAST 24HF 042100UTC 11.3N 108.2E 80NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 051800UTC 11.1N 104.5E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 032245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 032100 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (11.4 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (10.1 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (102.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 032245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 032100 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHWEST QUADRANT, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC ONE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (11.4 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (107.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (10.1 N) ONE ZERO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (102.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.