** WTIN20 DEMS 020618 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 13 DEG.N.OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIO30 FMEE 020617 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/02 AT 0600 UTC : 16.7S / 42.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 17.5S/42.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 18.3S/42.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CI=2.5- EX-ANITA IS COMPLETELY SHEARED, AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE CLEARLY APPEARS IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE RESIDUAL AND VERY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY WELL-DEFINED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY WITHIN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 020616 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 02/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 020/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 02/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 2 (EX-ANITA) 999 HPA POSITION: 16.7S / 42.4E (SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 40 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 02/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 17.5S / 42.3E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 03/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 18.3S / 42.1E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, SE DISSIPANT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: EX-ANITA SUBIT UN VENT D'ALTITUDE TRES CONTRAIGNANT. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE (ORAGEUSE) ASSOCIEE DEVIENT TRES FLUCTUANTE. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE SE DISSIPER PROGRESSIVEMENT. . ** WTIO24 FMEE 020616 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 020/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 02/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ANITA) 999 HPA POSITION: 16.7S / 42.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE .. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/02 AT 18 UTC: 17.5S / 42.3E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/03 AT 06 UTC: 18.3S / 42.1E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: EX-ANITA UNDERGOES A VERY UNFAVOURABLE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY BECOMES VERY FLUCTUATING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 020617 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/02 AT 0600 UTC : 16.7S / 42.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 17.5S/42.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 18.3S/42.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CI=2.5- EX-ANITA IS COMPLETELY SHEARED, AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE CLEARLY APPEARS IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE RESIDUAL AND VERY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY WELL-DEFINED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY WITHIN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 020617 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/02 AT 0600 UTC : 16.7S / 42.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 17.5S/42.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 18.3S/42.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CI=2.5- EX-ANITA IS COMPLETELY SHEARED, AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE CLEARLY APPEARS IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE RESIDUAL AND VERY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY WELL-DEFINED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY WITHIN A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 020630 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 13 DEG.N.OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 020600 *** WARNING 020600. WARNING VALID 030600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.7N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 13.5N 113.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 12.5N 110.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 11.0N 105.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 020600UTC 13.7N 116.4E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 030600UTC 13.5N 113.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 040600UTC 12.5N 110.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 050600UTC 11.0N 105.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC 00HR 13.8N 116.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 13.8N 113.6E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 13.3N 110.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 12.1N 106.3E 998HPA 17M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 020600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TY 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 020600UTC 13.7N 116.4E MOVEMENT W 6KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 030600UTC 13.5N 113.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT 48HR POSITION 040600UTC 12.6N 109.9E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 050600UTC 11.5N 106.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 020745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020600 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (10.7 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (9.3 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020600 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (10.7 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (9.3 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (104.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 13.8N 116.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 116.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 14.0N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 13.8N 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 13.4N 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 12.9N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 12.2N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 11.1N 105.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 115.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 13.8N 116.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 13.4N 112.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 040600UTC 12.5N 110.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 050600UTC 11.0N 105.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 020900 *** WARNING 020900. WARNING VALID 030900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.8N 116.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 13.4N 112.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 020600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 0600 DECEMBER 02 TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0621) WAS LOCATED BY SAT AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.7N 116.4E FORECAST TOMOVE WEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 39MPS NEAR ENTER 25MPS WITHIN 125KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RDIUS NORTH SEMI CIRCLE 250KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 030600 13.5N 113.0E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREOO HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH20 RPMM 020600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNINF 18 AT 0600 DECEMBER 02 TYPHOON (DURIAN){0621} WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WIND THREE NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO FIVE KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 030600 ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTSS20 VHHH 021045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020900 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (12.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (10.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (9.2 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (103.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 021045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020900 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (12.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (10.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (9.2 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (103.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.