** WTSR20 WSSS 011800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO21 FMEE 020014 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 02/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 019/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 02/12/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 2 (EX-ANITA) 999 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2S / 42.4E (SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 50 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 02/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 16.7S / 42.1E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 03/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 16.9S / 41.4E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, SE DISSIPANT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: SUBISSANT UN VENT D'ALTITUDE TRES CONTRAIGNANT, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE (ORAGEUSE) AUTOUR DE "EX-ANITA" S'EST FORTEMENT REDUITE, SIGNE DE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE SE DISSIPER PROGRESSIVEMENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 020015 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/02 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2S / 42.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 16.7S/42.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/03 00 UTC: 16.9S/41.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5- ; CI=2.5- UNDERGOING A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DECREASED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 020015 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/02 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2S / 42.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 16.7S/42.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/12/03 00 UTC: 16.9S/41.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5- ; CI=2.5- UNDERGOING A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DECREASED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY .. . ** WTIO24 FMEE 020014 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 019/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 02/12/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ANITA) 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2S / 42.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE .. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/02 AT 12 UTC: 16.7S / 42.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/12/03 AT 00 UTC: 16.9S / 41.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: UNDERGOING A VERY UNFAVOURABLE NOTHWESTERLY UPPER LAYER WIND, THE CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DECREASED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE GRADUALLY. . ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC 00HR 13.5N 116.9E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 70KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 13.4N 113.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 12.8N 110.0E 995HPA 18M/S P+72HR 11.8N 106.6E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 020000 *** WARNING 020000. WARNING VALID 030000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.7N 117.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 13.3N 113.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 12.5N 110.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 11.2N 106.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 13.7N 117.0E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 030000UTC 13.3N 113.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 040000UTC 12.5N 110.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 050000UTC 11.2N 106.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 020145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020000 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (12.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (11.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (9.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020000 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (12.6 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (11.3 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (9.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 020300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 117.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 117.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 13.5N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 13.4N 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 13.2N 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 12.9N 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 12.0N 108.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 11.3N 106.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 116.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 020300 *** DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANITA) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 42.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 42.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.6S 43.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 42.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S REMIANS WELL-DEFINED, THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TC 03S HAS DISSIPATED DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, BUT DUE TO CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS REGENERATION OF TC 03S IS UNLIKELY. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 020300 *** WARNING 020300. WARNING VALID 030300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.6N 116.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 13.3N 113.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 13.6N 116.6E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 030300UTC 13.3N 113.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 040000UTC 12.5N 110.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 050000UTC 11.2N 106.9E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPH RPLL 020000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0000 DECEMBER 02 TYPHOON (0621) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI- CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO FIVE KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 030000 ONE THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTSS20 VHHH 020445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020300 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (12.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (11.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (9.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020300 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (12.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (11.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (9.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020300 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (12.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC ONE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (11.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (9.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.