** WTIO21 FMEE 011808 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 01/12/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 018/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 01/12/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (ANITA) 994 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1S / 42.7E (SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 180 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. COUP DE VENT 35KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 60 MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 02/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 17.5S / 43.0E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 02/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 18.9S / 43.3E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA TEMPETE "ANITA" CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUDSUD-EST. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT MOINS BONNES ET LE SYSTEME EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT. CEPENDANT, L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE ET PLUVIEUSE RESTE SOUTENUE EN PERIPHERIE DE CE SYSTEME, NOTAMMENT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A 36 HEURES LE LONG DES COTES OUEST DE MADAGASCAR ET SUR L'ILE DE JUAN DE NOVA. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 011809 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 42.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 19.5S/42.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 20.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 ; CI=3.0- AS THE SYSTEM "ANITA" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS, IT ENCOUTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THIS UNFAVOURABLE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN MALGASY COASTLINE A ND THE JUAN-DE-NOVA ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 011809 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 42.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 19.5S/42.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 20.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 ; CI=3.0- AS THE SYSTEM "ANITA" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS, IT ENCOUTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THIS UNFAVOURABLE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN MALGASY COASTLINE A ND THE JUAN-DE-NOVA ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. . ** WTIO24 FMEE 011808 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 01/12/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 994 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 42.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/02 AT 06 UTC: 17.5S / 43.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/12/02 AT 18 UTC: 18.9S / 43.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE TROPICAL STORM "ANITA" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS SLOWLY. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN MALGASY COASTLINE AND THE JUAN-DE-NOVA ISLAND DURING THE NE XT 24 TO 36 HOURS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 011818 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 42.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 19.5S/42.8E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 20.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 ; CI=3.0- AS THE SYSTEM "ANITA" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS, IT ENCOUTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THIS UNFAVOURABLE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN MALGASY COASTLINE A ND THE JUAN-DE-NOVA ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 011818 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 42.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 19.5S/42.8E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 20.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 ; CI=3.0- AS THE SYSTEM "ANITA" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS, IT ENCOUTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THIS UNFAVOURABLE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN MALGASY COASTLINE A ND THE JUAN-DE-NOVA ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. . ** WTJP31 RJTD 011500 *** WARNING 011500. WARNING VALID 021500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.7N 118.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 13.4N 114.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC 00HR 13.6N 117.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 13.5N 113.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 13.2N 108.8E 990HPA 20M/S P+72HR 12.5N 106.6E 998HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC 00HR 13.6N 117.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 13.5N 113.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 13.2N 109.9E 990HPA 20M/S P+72HR 12.5N 106.6E 998HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 011800 *** WARNING 011800. WARNING VALID 021800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.7N 117.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 13.4N 114.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 12.7N 111.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 11.4N 108.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 011800UTC 13.7N 117.5E FAIR MOVE W 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 021800UTC 13.4N 114.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 031800UTC 12.7N 111.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 041800UTC 11.4N 108.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 011645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011500 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (12.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTKO20 RKSL 011800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME TY 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 011800UTC 13.7N 117.5E MOVEMENT W 11KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 021800UTC 13.5N 114.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT 48HR POSITION 031800UTC 13.2N 111.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 66KT 72HR POSITION 041800UTC 12.7N 107.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTIO30 FMEE 011818 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 42.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 19.5S/42.8E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 20.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 ; CI=3.0- AS THE SYSTEM "ANITA" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS, IT ENCOUTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THIS UNFAVOURABLE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN MALGASY COASTLINE A ND THE JUAN-DE-NOVA ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 011818 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 42.7E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 19.5S/42.8E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 20.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 ; CI=3.0- AS THE SYSTEM "ANITA" KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS, IT ENCOUTERS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO THIS UNFAVOURABLE DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT THE WESTERN MALGASY COASTLINE A ND THE JUAN-DE-NOVA ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. . ** WTSS20 VHHH 011945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011800 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (12.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011800 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (117.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041800 UTC ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (12.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 117.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 117.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 13.3N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 13.2N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 13.2N 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 13.1N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 12.6N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 12.0N 107.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 117.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST- WARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTPS31 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 12.4S 165.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 165.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 13.6S 165.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 14.2S 165.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 14.8S 166.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 15.4S 166.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 165.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-SOUTH- EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE MIDLATITUDE JET. TC 04P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO THIS HIGH SHEAR REGION TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF FIJI. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AFTER TAU 48, A RELAXATION IN THE SHEAR GRADIENT IS FORECAST AS AN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS SOUTH OF TC 04P, AND SOME REINTENSIFICATION MAY BE POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 011800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT 1800 DECEMBER 01 TYPHOON (DURIAN)(0621)WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.6 NORTH 117.4 EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 04 MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300 KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI- CIRCLE 250 KM RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTO PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 36 MPS NEAR CENTER 25 MPS WITHIN 125KM RADIUS 13 MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KM RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021800 13.6 NORTH 113.9 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3HRLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPH20 RPMM 012100 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT 1800 DECEMBER 01 TYPHOON (DURIAN)(0621) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI- CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO FIVE KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SEDCOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021800 ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 012100 *** WARNING 012100. WARNING VALID 022100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.7N 117.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 13.4N 113.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 012100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 012100UTC 13.7N 117.2E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 022100UTC 13.4N 113.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 031800UTC 12.7N 111.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 041800UTC 11.4N 108.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPS11 NFFN 012100 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Dec 01/2144 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F [999hPa] centre was re-located near 12.3S 164.6E at 012100 UTC. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and 01/1855UTC SSM/I data. Depression moving south-southeast about 06 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 to 35 knots in the sectors from east through south to south-southwest within 30 to 120 miles of centre. Organisation steady past 12 hours. Cold tops sheared to southeast. Low-level cloud lines exposed to north and west. Outflow good to south but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on shear pattern with llcc sheared about 30nm from deep convection. This yields a DT=2.5/3.0. MET and PAT agree at 2.5. Final T=2.5, thus T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24hrs. 05F continues to move into area of stronger shear. Depression currently lies well south of a 250hPa ridge axis in a divergent region. SST around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. 05F expected to be gradually steered south and then southwest under a northeast steering field. Global models that have captured the system generally move the system initially south then west with little development. Potential for TD05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next in the next 24 hours is low to moderate. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 020200 UTC unless it dissipates before then. ** WTPS11 NFFN 012100 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Dec 01/2144 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F [999hPa] centre was re-located near 12.3S 164.6E at 012100 UTC. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and 01/1855UTC SSM/I data. Depression moving south-southeast about 06 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 to 35 knots in the sectors from east through south to south-southwest within 30 to 120 miles of centre. Organisation steady past 12 hours. Cold tops sheared to southeast. Low-level cloud lines exposed to north and west. Outflow good to south but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on shear pattern with llcc sheared about 30nm from deep convection. This yields a DT=2.5/3.0. MET and PAT agree at 2.5. Final T=2.5, thus T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24hrs. 05F continues to move into area of stronger shear. Depression currently lies well south of a 250hPa ridge axis in a divergent region. SST around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. 05F expected to be gradually steered south and then southwest under a northeast steering field. Global models that have captured the system generally move the system initially south then west with little development. Potential for TD05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next in the next 24 hours is low to moderate. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 020200 UTC unless it dissipates before then. ** WTJP31 RJTD 012100 *** WARNING 012100. WARNING VALID 022100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.7N 117.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 13.4N 113.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 012100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 012100UTC 13.7N 117.2E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 022100UTC 13.4N 113.9E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 031800UTC 12.7N 111.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 041800UTC 11.4N 108.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WSW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 012245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 012100 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (11.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (10.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 012245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 012100 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (11.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 042100 UTC ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (10.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.