** WTSR20 WSSS 010600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 011200 UTC 00HR 13.5N 118.5E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 13.6N 114.7E 985HPA 27M/S P+48HR 13.5N 112.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 13.4N 110.0E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTIO24 FMEE 011216 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 017/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 01/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 994 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5S / 42.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 40KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/02 AT 00 UTC: 16.6S / 42.4E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/02 AT 12 UTC: 17.8S / 42.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE TROPICAL STORM ANITA KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS. IT BEGIN UNDERGOING UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF 15S AND SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35KT. THUNDERY AND RAINY ACTIVITY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALONG WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND OVER JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND AREA .. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 011216 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 01/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 017/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 01/12/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (ANITA) 994 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.5S / 42.4E (QUINZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 180 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. COUP DE VENT 35KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 40 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ET DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD JUSQU'A 90 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 02/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 16.6S / 42.4E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 02/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 17.8S / 42.5E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA TEMPETE ANITA CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD. ELLE COMMENCE A RENCONTRER DES CONDITIONS DEFAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION AU SUD DE 15S ET DEVRAIT COMMENCER A FAIBLIR. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER AU VOISINAGE DE L'ILE DE JUAN DE NOVA D'ICI 12 A 24H EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT AVEC DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 30 A 35KT .. L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE ET PLUVIEUSE POURRAIT ETRE IMPORTANTE DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24 A 36 HEURES LE LONG DES COTES OUEST DE MADAGASCAR ET SUR L'ILE DE JUAN DE NOVA. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 011219 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5S / 42.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 16.6S/42.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 17.8S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/03 00 UTC: 18.7S/42.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 12 UTC: 19.4S/41.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/12/04 00 UTC: 19.9S/41.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD BUT THE SYSTEME IS UNDERGOING A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (CF TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0549UTC) AND THE THE WINDSHEAR IS MORE AND MORE STRONGER SOUTHWARDS SO ANITA KEEPS ON TRACKING TOWARD A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WOULD WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35KT. THUNDERY AND RAINY ACTIVITY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALONG WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND OVER JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND AREA .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 011219 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5S / 42.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 16.6S/42.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 17.8S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/03 00 UTC: 18.7S/42.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 12 UTC: 19.4S/41.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/12/04 00 UTC: 19.9S/41.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD BUT THE SYSTEME IS UNDERGOING A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (CF TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0549UTC) AND THE THE WINDSHEAR IS MORE AND MORE STRONGER SOUTHWARDS SO ANITA KEEPS ON TRACKING TOWARD A LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WOULD WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35KT. THUNDERY AND RAINY ACTIVITY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALONG WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND OVER JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND AREA .. . ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 011200UTC 13.7N 118.6E FAIR MOVE W 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 021200UTC 13.4N 115.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 031200UTC 13.5N 112.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 041200UTC 13.3N 110.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 011200 *** WARNING 011200. WARNING VALID 021200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.7N 118.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 13.4N 115.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 13.5N 112.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 13.3N 110.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 011345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011200 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (12.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011200 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (12.4 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTXS31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANITA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 42.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 42.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.7S 42.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.9S 42.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.8S 42.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 42.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S HAS RECENTLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH, TC 03S WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL CAUSE WEAKENING FROM TAU 12 AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 118.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 118.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 13.8N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 13.9N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 13.9N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 13.8N 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 13.4N 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 12.7N 106.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 118.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// BT ** WTPH20 RPMM 011200 *** TTT TYPHOON 15 AT 1200 DECEMBER 01 TYPHOON (DURIAN)(0621) WAS LOCATED BY PAGASA LAND RADAR,SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOME NAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NIE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METER PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE METER PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO FIVE KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021200 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT TWO EAST AT 031200 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTXS31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ANITA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 42.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 42.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.7S 42.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.9S 42.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.8S 42.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 42.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ANITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S HAS RECENTLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH, TC 03S WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH WILL CAUSE WEAKENING FROM TAU 12 AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 011500 *** WARNING 011500. WARNING VALID 021500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.7N 118.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 13.4N 114.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 011500UTC 13.7N 118.3E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 021500UTC 13.4N 114.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 031200UTC 13.5N 112.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 041200UTC 13.3N 110.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPH RPLL 011200 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 1200 DECEMBER 01 TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0621) WAS LOCATED BY PAGASA LAND RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.6N 118.6E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMINAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 36MPS NEAR CNER 25MPS WITHIN 125KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 021200 13.7N 115.2E AT 031200 123.8N 11.8E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP31 RJTD 011500 *** WARNING 011500. WARNING VALID 021500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.7N 118.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 13.4N 114.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 011500UTC 13.7N 118.3E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 021500UTC 13.4N 114.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 031200UTC 13.5N 112.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 041200UTC 13.3N 110.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 011645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011500 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (12.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011500 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (12.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.