** WTIO22 FMEE 010609 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 01/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 994 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 42.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 40KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 18 UTC: 14.9S / 42.7E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/02 AT 06 UTC: 16.5S / 42.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE TROPICAL STORM ANITA KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS. IT WOULD BE CONSTRAINTED BY UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF 15S AND SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND WITHIN 24 TO 30 HOURS AT THE STAGE OF WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THUNDERY AND RAINY ACTIVITY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND OVER JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND AREA.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 010609 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 01/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 016/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 01/12/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 994 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 42.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 40KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 18 UTC: 14.9S / 42.7E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/02 AT 06 UTC: 16.5S / 42.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE TROPICAL STORM ANITA KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS. IT WOULD BE CONSTRAINTED BY UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF 15S AND SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND WITHIN 24 TO 30 HOURS AT THE STAGE OF WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THUNDERY AND RAINY ACTIVITY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND OVER JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND AREA. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 010609 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 01/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 016/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 01/12/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (ANITA) 994 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7S / 42.5E (QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 40 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ET DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD JUSQU'A 90 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 14.9S / 42.7E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 02/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 16.5S / 42.7E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA TEMPETE ANITA CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT VERS LE SUD. ELLE DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DES CONDITIONS DEFAVORABLES A SON INTENSIFICATION AU SUD DE 15S ET COMMENCER A FAIBLIR. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER AU VOISINAGE DE L'ILE DE JUAN DE NOVA D'ICI 24 A 30H AU STADE DE DEPRESSION TROPICALE S'AFFAIBLISSANT. L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE ET PLUVIEUSE POURRAIT ETRE IMPORTANTE DURANT LES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES LE LONG DES COTES OUEST DE MADAGASCAR ET SUR L'ILE DE JUAN DE NOVA. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 010631 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 42.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 14.9S/42.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 16.5S/42.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 18.2S/42.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 19.6S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 20.8S/42.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/12/04 06 UTC: 22.4S/42.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD BUT THE SYSTEME IS UNDERGOING A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (CF AMSU NOAA16 MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0025UTC) AND THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION (CF INDOEX IMAGERY AT 0600UTC). THE TROPICAL STORM ANITA KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND WITHIN 24 TO 30 HOURS AT THE STAGE OF WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THUNDERY AND RAINY ACTIVITY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND OVER JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND AREA.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 010631 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/2/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ANITA) 2.A POSITION 2006/12/01 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7S / 42.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 14.9S/42.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 16.5S/42.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 18.2S/42.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 19.6S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 20.8S/42.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/12/04 06 UTC: 22.4S/42.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD BUT THE SYSTEME IS UNDERGOING A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (CF AMSU NOAA16 MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0025UTC) AND THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION (CF INDOEX IMAGERY AT 0600UTC). THE TROPICAL STORM ANITA KEEPS ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND WITHIN 24 TO 30 HOURS AT THE STAGE OF WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THUNDERY AND RAINY ACTIVITY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG WESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE AND OVER JUAN DE NOVA ISLAND AREA. . ** WTJP21 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.7N 118.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 13.6N 115.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 13.5N 112.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 13.4N 110.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 13.7N 118.8E FAIR MOVE W 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 13.6N 115.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 030600UTC 13.5N 112.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 040600UTC 13.4N 110.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTIN20 DEMS 010656 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-12-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) SOUTH WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ==== ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 13.6N 119.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 13.8N 116.3E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 13.5N 113.8E 998HPA 18M/S P+72HR 13.1N 111.7E 1000HPA 13M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 010600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME TY 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 010600UTC 13.7N 118.8E MOVEMENT W 11KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020600UTC 14.0N 115.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT 48HR POSITION 030600UTC 13.9N 112.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT 72HR POSITION 040600UTC 13.7N 110.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 66KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS FAIR. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010600 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010600 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 119.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 119.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 13.8N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 13.9N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 13.9N 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 13.9N 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 13.5N 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 12.8N 107.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 118.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. // BT ** WTPS31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RELOCATED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 11.2S 164.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 164.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 12.7S 164.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 13.9S 165.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 14.5S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 14.8S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 164.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. A 010309Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THIS RELOCATED POSITION, WHICH IS APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. TC 04P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WEST OF FIJI. TC 04P WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO GOOD OUTLFOW ALOFT AND THEN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH TRACKS RANGING FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, WBAR, AFWA MM5, AND FBAM SOLUTIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z. // BT ** WTPH RPLL 010600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 0600 DECEMBER 01 TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0621) WAS LOCATED BY SATEL- LITE AND SURFACE DATA 13.6N 119.3E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KM RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KM RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS 36MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 125KM RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KM RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KM RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 020600 13.7N 115.9E AT 030600 13.9N 112.6E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP31 RJTD 010900 *** WARNING 010900. WARNING VALID 020900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 965 HPA AT 13.7N 118.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 13.4N 115.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 13.7N 118.8E FAIR MOVE W 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 55NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 13.4N 115.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 030600UTC 13.5N 112.6E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 040600UTC 13.4N 110.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010900 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (13.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (12.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010900 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (13.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (12.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTMA20 FIMP 010800 *** B.M.S NR007/02 DE FMMDYMYP A 06TU LE 01/12/06 A 06 TU AVIS DE COUP DE VENT : EN COURS TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE : ?ANITA? PRESSION : 994 HPA CENTREE A : 06 TU D'APRES METEOSAT DANS UN RAYON DE 30MN AUTOUR DU POINT QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST. RPT:14.7 S/42.5 E DEPLACEMENT : SUD VITESSE : 06 KT ZONE INTERESSEE : TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MKPHIOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD- EST. COUP DE VENTS 35KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ATTEGNANT LOCALEMENT 40KT DANS LE DEMI CERCLE SUD.GRANDS FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR CENTRE ET DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD JUSQU'A 90MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. COMMENTAIRE : INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME GALE WARNING : MODERATE TROPICAL STORM : ?ANITA? PRESSURE : 994 HPA CENTRED AT : 06 TU ACCORDING TO METYMSAT WITHIN 30 NM AROUND POINT FOURTEEN DEGREES DECIMAL SEVEN SOUTH AND FOURTY TWO DEGREES DECIMAL FIVE EAST. RPT :14.7 S/42.5 E MOVEMENT : SOUTHWARD SPEED : 06 KT INTERESTED AREA : SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WTHIN 100NM FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE //END PART 01// ** WTMG20 FMMD 010802 *** FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WTIHIN 20NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER LOCALLY REACHING 40 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER CHECK TEXT ENDING ADDED //END PART 02/02// ** WTMG20 FMMD 010802 *** FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WTIHIN 20NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER LOCALLY REACHING 40 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER CHECK TEXT ENDING ADDED //END PART 02/02//= ** WTPH20 RPMM 010600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 0600 DEC 01 TYPHOON (DURIAN) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO FIVE KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 020600 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE EAST AT 030600 ONE THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS EITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA . WEATHER MANILA=