** WTIO22 FMEE 301810 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 30/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 06 UTC: 14.9S / 42.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 18 UTC: 16.3S / 42.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: AT THE LIMIT OF THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM, THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION NR2 STILL TRACK SOUTHWARDS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GENERATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS OVER THE MID-NORTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS AND TO WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 301810 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 30/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 014/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 06 UTC: 14.9S / 42.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 18 UTC: 16.3S / 42.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: AT THE LIMIT OF THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM, THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION NR2 STILL TRACK SOUTHWARDS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, GENERATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS OVER THE MID-NORTHERN PART OF THE CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS AND TO WEAKEN MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 301810 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 30/11/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 014/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 30/11/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 2 997 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.8S / 42.3E (TREIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 35 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD JUSQU'A 90 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 14.9S / 42.3E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 01/12/2006 A 18 UTC: 16.3S / 42.5E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: A LA LIMITE DU STADE DE TEMPETE, LA DEPRESSION NR 02 POURSUIT SA DESCENTE DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APPORTANT DES PRECIPITATIONS LOCALEMENT IMPORTANTES SUR UNE LARGE MOITIE NORD DU CANAL. IL EST PREVU POURSUIVRE EN DIRECTION DU SUD ET S'AFFAIBLI PLUS NETTEMENT D'ICI 24 A 36 HEURES. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 301828 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.9S/42.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.3S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.9S/42.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 20.9S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 21.8S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- ; CI=2.5 THE CDO WHICH AS JUST BUILT DURING LAST HOURS DIDN'T SUCCEED TO MAINTAIN. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY AT THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE WEAKENING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE NEXT 24 OR 36 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MORE SHEARED.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 301828 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.9S/42.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.3S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.9S/42.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 20.9S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 21.8S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- ; CI=2.5 THE CDO WHICH AS JUST BUILT DURING LAST HOURS DIDN'T SUCCEED TO MAINTAIN. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY AT THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE WEAKENING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE NEXT 24 OR 36 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MORE SHEARED. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 301834 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.9S/42.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.3S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.9S/42.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 20.9S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 21.8S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- ; CI=2.5 THE CDO WHICH AS JUST BUILT DURING LAST HOURS DIDN'T SUCCEED TO MAINTAIN. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY AT THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE WEAKENING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE NEXT 24 OR 36 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MORE SHEARED.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 301834 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.9S/42.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.3S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.9S/42.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 20.9S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/12/03 18 UTC: 21.8S/43.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- ; CI=2.5 THE CDO WHICH AS JUST BUILT DURING LAST HOURS DIDN'T SUCCEED TO MAINTAIN. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY AT THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE WEAKENING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE NEXT 24 OR 36 HOURS, AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARDS, IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MORE SHEARED. . ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 301800 UTC 00HR 13.5N 121.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 14.1N 117.4E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 14.1N 114.9E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 13.4N 112.4E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 301800 *** WARNING 301800. WARNING VALID 011800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 960 HPA AT 13.5N 121.2E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 13.9N 118.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 14.2N 116.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 14.5N 114.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 301800UTC 13.5N 121.2E GOOD MOVE W 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 011800UTC 13.9N 118.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 021800UTC 14.2N 116.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 031800UTC 14.5N 114.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 301800 *** WARNING 301800. WARNING VALID 011800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 960 HPA AT 13.5N 121.2E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 13.9N 118.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 14.2N 116.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 14.5N 114.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 301800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 301800UTC 13.5N 121.2E MOVEMENT W 11KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 011800UTC 13.8N 118.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 021800UTC 14.1N 116.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 72HR POSITION 031800UTC 14.4N 114.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPS11 NFFN 301800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 30/1957 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F [998hPa] centre was located near 9.0S 162.8E at 301800 UTC. Position poor based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Depression moving west-southwest about 05 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 100 miles of centre in the northeastern semicircle and 60 miles in the southwestern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 24 hours. Organisation gradually evolving with a primary band to east wrapping into LLCC. Tops have warmed slightly past 6 hours, though. Outflow good in all quadrants. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral with DT=2.5. MET and PAT agree at 2.5. Final T=2.5, thus T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24hrs. Latest CIMSS shows increasing shear to south of the depression. 05F currently lies just south of a 250hPa ridge axis. SST around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. 05F expected to be steered initially southward under a weak northerly steering field. Global models that have captured the system generally move the system south with gradual deeepening. Potential for TD05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next in the next 24 hours is moderate to high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 010200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 301800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 30/1957 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F [998hPa] centre was located near 9.0S 162.8E at 301800 UTC. Position poor based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Depression moving west-southwest about 05 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 100 miles of centre in the northeastern semicircle and 60 miles in the southwestern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 24 hours. Organisation gradually evolving with a primary band to east wrapping into LLCC. Tops have warmed slightly past 6 hours, though. Outflow good in all quadrants. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral with DT=2.5. MET and PAT agree at 2.5. Final T=2.5, thus T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24hrs. Latest CIMSS shows increasing shear to south of the depression. 05F currently lies just south of a 250hPa ridge axis. SST around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. 05F expected to be steered initially southward under a weak northerly steering field. Global models that have captured the system generally move the system south with gradual deeepening. Potential for TD05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next in the next 24 hours is moderate to high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 010200 UTC. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 301945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301800 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPS31 PGTW 302100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301800Z --- NEAR 8.1S 163.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S 163.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 8.8S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 9.4S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 10.4S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 11.5S 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 302100Z POSITION NEAR 8.3S 163.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-NORTH- EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT EQUATORWARD OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEW ZEALAND TO NEW CALEDONIA. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL INDUCE A SLOW TRACK TOWARD THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AS THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE STORM WILL BUILD WESTWARD BY TAU 48, PROVIDING A STRONGER SOUTHWARD STEERING CURRENT AND A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN TRACK. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD A MODERATE WIND SHEAR GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH. THIS HIGHER SHEAR ZONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE JET AND WILL MIGRATE FURTHER SOUTH AFTER TAU 48, CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 301800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 1800 30 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURAN)(0621) WAS LOCATED BY PAGASA LAND RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE TWO FIVE KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 011800 ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST AT 021800 ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 302100 *** WARNING 302100. WARNING VALID 012100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 960 HPA AT 13.6N 120.6E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 13.9N 117.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 302100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 302100UTC 13.6N 120.6E GOOD MOVE W 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 012100UTC 13.9N 117.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 021800UTC 14.2N 116.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 031800UTC 14.5N 114.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH RPLL 301800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 12 AT 18O0 30 NOVEMBER TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WAS LOCATED BY PAGASA LAND RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.5N 121.3E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT 05MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 300KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 41MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 125KM RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 300KM RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KM RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 011800 13.6N 117.4E AT 021800 13.6N 114.4E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTSS20 VHHH 302245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 302100 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (13.7 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 302245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 302100 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (13.7 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.