** WTSR20 WSSS 300600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 301200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 301200 UTC 00HR 13.5N 122.5E 940HPA 50M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 140KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 14.0N 118.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 14.4N 116.5E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 15.0N 115.0E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTIO22 FMEE 301225 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 30/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30/35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 00 UTC: 14.4S / 42.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 12 UTC: 15.7S / 43.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM NR 02 REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE LATEST SATELITTE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTARDS ; THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 301227 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 14.4S/42.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/01 12 UTC: 15.7S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 17.4S/43.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 19.0S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/12/03 00 UTC: 20.3S/43.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/12/03 12 UTC: 21.0S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+ ; CI=2.5 THE RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM NR02 REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, AND SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STARTS HINDERING THE SYSTEM ORGANIZATION (THE WESTERN POLAR OUTFLOW SEEMS TO DISORGANIZE GRADUALLY). NEVERTHELESS, THE PERIPHERIC CO NVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN VERY ACTIVE AND STILL AFFECT THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK ; THE UPPER LAYER CONFIGURATION IS BECOMING LESS FAVOURABLE. NEVERTHELESS, A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION CAN NOT BE LEFT OUT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ; AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GR ADUALLY.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 301225 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 30/11/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 013/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 30/11/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 2 997 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2S / 42.3E (TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30/35 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD JUSQU'A 90 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 01/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 14.4S / 42.6E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 01/12/2006 A 12 UTC: 15.7S / 43.0E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME NR 02 RESTE PEU ORGANISE ET LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES SUGGERENT QUE LE SYSTEME SUBIT MAINTENANT DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES MOINS FAVORABLES. NEANMOINS, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE (ORAGEUSE) S'ETEND LARGEMENT A L'EST DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES, NOTAMMENT SUR L'ARCHIPEL D ES COMORES. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD -SUD-EST, IL EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR D'ICI 24 A 36 HEURES. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 301225 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 30/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 013/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30/35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 00 UTC: 14.4S / 42.6E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 12 UTC: 15.7S / 43.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM NR 02 REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE LATEST SATELITTE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTARDS ; THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 301227 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 42.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 14.4S/42.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/01 12 UTC: 15.7S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 17.4S/43.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 19.0S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/12/03 00 UTC: 20.3S/43.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/12/03 12 UTC: 21.0S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+ ; CI=2.5 THE RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM NR02 REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, AND SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STARTS HINDERING THE SYSTEM ORGANIZATION (THE WESTERN POLAR OUTFLOW SEEMS TO DISORGANIZE GRADUALLY). NEVERTHELESS, THE PERIPHERIC CO NVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN VERY ACTIVE AND STILL AFFECT THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS. THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK ; THE UPPER LAYER CONFIGURATION IS BECOMING LESS FAVOURABLE. NEVERTHELESS, A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION CAN NOT BE LEFT OUT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ; AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GR ADUALLY. . ** WTJP21 RJTD 301200 *** WARNING 301200. WARNING VALID 011200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 950 HPA AT 13.5N 122.4E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 13.8N 119.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 14.4N 117.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 14.8N 115.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 301200UTC 13.5N 122.4E GOOD MOVE W 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 65NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 011200UTC 13.8N 119.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 021200UTC 14.4N 117.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 031200UTC 14.8N 115.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPS11 NFFN 301200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 30/1341 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F [998hPa] centre was located near 9.0S 163.9E at 301200 UTC. Position poor based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery with animation and 0715Z Quikscat pass. Depression moving southwest about 08 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 90 miles of centre increasing to 35 knots in the next 24 to 36 hours. Cloud organisation continues to improve with a band wrapping into LLCC from the south while a secondary band is organising itself to the north. Outflow good in all quadrants. Dvorak based on Curved band wrap of 0.5 on log10 spiral with DT=2.5 PAT =2.0 Final T=2.5, thus T2.5/2.5/D1.0/18hrs. 05F remains in a favourable area underneath the 250hPa ridge axis, slightly west of an upper outflow centre. Shear in the area remains around 15 knots with increasing shear south of latitude 10S. SST around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. 05F remains on the back-end of a mid-level ridge which may steer it southwards in the next 24 hours. Global models that have captured the system generally move the system south which gradual deeepening. Potential for TD05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next in the next 24 hours is high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 302000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 301200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 30/1341 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F [998hPa] centre was located near 9.0S 163.9E at 301200 UTC. Position poor based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery with animation and 0715Z Quikscat pass. Depression moving southwest about 08 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 90 miles of centre increasing to 35 knots in the next 24 to 36 hours. Cloud organisation continues to improve with a band wrapping into LLCC from the south while a secondary band is organising itself to the north. Outflow good in all quadrants. Dvorak based on Curved band wrap of 0.5 on log10 spiral with DT=2.5 PAT =2.0 Final T=2.5, thus T2.5/2.5/D1.0/18hrs. 05F remains in a favourable area underneath the 250hPa ridge axis, slightly west of an upper outflow centre. Shear in the area remains around 15 knots with increasing shear south of latitude 10S. SST around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. 05F remains on the back-end of a mid-level ridge which may steer it southwards in the next 24 hours. Global models that have captured the system generally move the system south which gradual deeepening. Potential for TD05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next in the next 24 hours is high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 302000 UTC. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 301345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301200 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (117.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTPS31 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 7.7S 164.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S 164.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 8.0S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 8.5S 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 9.4S 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 10.9S 161.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 163.9E. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 300552Z NOV 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 300600 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z. // ** WTPN31 PGTW 300900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 123.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 123.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 13.8N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 14.2N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 14.7N 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 15.1N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 15.6N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 15.4N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.1N 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 300900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 123.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z. // BT ** WTPN31 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 13.5N 122.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 122.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 13.9N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 14.3N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 14.7N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 15.1N 116.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 15.4N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 15.0N 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 14.3N 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 121.9E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. // BT ** WTPS31 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 7.7S 164.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S 164.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 8.0S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 8.5S 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 9.4S 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 10.9S 161.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 163.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04P WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF FIJI. TC 04P WILL INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATALOGICAL RATE DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 300552Z NOV 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 300600) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z. // BT ** WTXS31 PGTW 300300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 282351ZNOV06// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 41.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 41.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 12.7S 41.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 14.3S 41.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.4S 41.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.3S 42.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 41.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH- WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 300036Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTED SLIGHTLY WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO FACILITATE INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 010300Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 301500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 282351ZNOV06// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 42.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 42.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 14.4S 42.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.8S 42.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.3S 42.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.3S 43.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 301500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 42.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF MADAGASCAR. TC 03W WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z. // BT ** WTPQ20 RJTD 301500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 301500UTC 13.5N 121.8E GOOD MOVE W 11KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 65NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 011500UTC 13.8N 118.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 021200UTC 14.4N 117.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 031200UTC 14.8N 115.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 301500 *** WARNING 301500. WARNING VALID 011500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 950 HPA AT 13.5N 121.8E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 65 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 13.8N 118.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 301200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 11 AT 1200 30 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0621) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FOUR NORTH EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FIVE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR FOUR METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 011200 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX EAST AT 021200 ONE THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEAHTER REPROTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPQ20 VHHH 301645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 301500 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (118.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.