** WTIO22 FMEE 300615 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 30/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 41.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30/35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 18 UTC: 13.1S / 41.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 06 UTC: 14.3S / 41.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM NR 02 IS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ; AN INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THAT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 300616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 41.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.3S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 18.3S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.4S/40.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 20.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 ACCORDING TO THE RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM NR 02 REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, THE CDO WEAKENS AND A CURVED BAND PATTERN SEEMS TO SET UP GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS , THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND EXTENDS FAR EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOC KWISE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS. THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK ; THE UPPER LAYER CONFIGURATION IS MORE FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD DIVERGENCE. AN INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, BUT AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN INCREAS ING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 300615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 30/11/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 012/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 30/11/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 2 997 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.1S / 41.9E (DOUZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE ET UN DEGRES NEUF EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30/35 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD JUSQU'A 90 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 30/11/2006 A 18 UTC: 13.1S / 41.9E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 01/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 14.3S / 41.5E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE (ORAGEUSE) ASSOCIEE AU SYSTEME NR 02 EST PEU ORGANISEE MAIS ELLE RESTE ASSEZ FORTE ET S'ETEND LARGEMENT A L'EST DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES, NOTAMMENT SUR L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD ; UNE INTENSIFICATION EST POSSIBLE D'ICI DEMAIN, MAIS ENSUITE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 300615 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 30/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 41.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30/35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 18 UTC: 13.1S / 41.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 06 UTC: 14.3S / 41.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM NR 02 IS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ; AN INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THAT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 300616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 41.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.3S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 18.3S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.4S/40.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 20.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 ACCORDING TO THE RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM NR 02 REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, THE CDO WEAKENS AND A CURVED BAND PATTERN SEEMS TO SET UP GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS , THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND EXTENDS FAR EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOC KWISE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS. THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK ; THE UPPER LAYER CONFIGURATION IS MORE FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD DIVERGENCE. AN INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, BUT AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN INCREAS ING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 300616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 41.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.3S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 18.3S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.4S/40.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 20.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 ACCORDING TO THE RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM NR 02 REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, THE CDO WEAKENS AND A CURVED BAND PATTERN SEEMS TO SET UP GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS , THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND EXTENDS FAR EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOC KWISE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS. THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK ; THE UPPER LAYER CONFIGURATION IS MORE FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD DIVERGENCE. AN INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, BUT AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN INCREAS ING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 300615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 30/11/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 012/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 30/11/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 2 997 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.1S / 41.9E (DOUZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE ET UN DEGRES NEUF EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30/35 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD JUSQU'A 90 MN DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 30/11/2006 A 18 UTC: 13.1S / 41.9E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 01/12/2006 A 06 UTC: 14.3S / 41.5E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE (ORAGEUSE) ASSOCIEE AU SYSTEME NR 02 EST PEU ORGANISEE MAIS ELLE RESTE ASSEZ FORTE ET S'ETEND LARGEMENT A L'EST DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES, NOTAMMENT SUR L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD ; UNE INTENSIFICATION EST POSSIBLE D'ICI DEMAIN, MAIS ENSUITE, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU S'AFFAIBLIR. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 300615 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 30/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 012/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 41.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30/35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 90 NM FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 18 UTC: 13.1S / 41.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 06 UTC: 14.3S / 41.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM NR 02 IS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS ; AN INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, BUT THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THAT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 300616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 41.9E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.3S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 18.3S/41.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.4S/40.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2006/12/03 06 UTC: 20.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 ACCORDING TO THE RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO SYSTEM NR 02 REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED, THE CDO WEAKENS AND A CURVED BAND PATTERN SEEMS TO SET UP GRADUALLY. NEVERTHELESS , THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND EXTENDS FAR EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOC KWISE CIRCULATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS. THE LOWER LAYER CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK ; THE UPPER LAYER CONFIGURATION IS MORE FAVOURABLE WITH A GOOD DIVERGENCE. AN INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, BUT AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN INCREAS ING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 300650 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 30-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA COMORIN AREA AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST AND SOUTH WEST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 14.0 DEG.N OVER THE INDIAN REGION (.) ==== ** WTJP21 RJTD 300600 *** WARNING 300600. WARNING VALID 010600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 940 HPA AT 13.4N 123.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 13.6N 120.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 14.2N 117.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 15.2N 116.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 300600UTC 13.4N 123.6E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 010600UTC 13.6N 120.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 020600UTC 14.2N 117.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 030600UTC 15.2N 116.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 300600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 300600 UTC 00HR 13.5N 123.6E 930HPA 55M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 14.0N 119.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 14.4N 116.5E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 15.1N 115.2E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 300600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 300600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 300600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TY 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 300600UTC 13.4N 123.6E MOVEMENT W 9KT PRES/VMAX 940HPA 89KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 010600UTC 14.0N 120.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 48HR POSITION 020600UTC 14.7N 117.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT 72HR POSITION 030600UTC 15.3N 115.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPS11 NFFN 300600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 30/0726 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F [999hPa] centre was located near 7.7S 164.0E at 300600 UTC. Position poor based on HRES MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Depression moving west about 05 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 90 miles in the southeast semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 24 to 36 hours. Cloud organisation has increased significantly in the past 12 hours. A primary band to the south continues to develop as it rotates into the LLCC. Outflow is fair to good in all quadrants. Dvorak based on Curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral with DT=2.0 PAT =2.0 Final T=2.0, thus T2.0/2.0/D0.5/06hrs. 05F currently lies in a favourable area underneath the 250hPa ridge axis. Shear in the area remains around 15 knots with increasing shear south of latitude 10S. SST around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. 05F is currently located on the back-end of a mid-level ridge which may steer it southwards in the next 24 hours. Global models that have captured the system generally move the system south which gradual deeepening. Potential for TD05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next in the next 24 hours is moderate to high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 301400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 300600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 30/0726 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 05F [999hPa] centre was located near 7.7S 164.0E at 300600 UTC. Position poor based on HRES MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Depression moving west about 05 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 90 miles in the southeast semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 24 to 36 hours. Cloud organisation has increased significantly in the past 12 hours. A primary band to the south continues to develop as it rotates into the LLCC. Outflow is fair to good in all quadrants. Dvorak based on Curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral with DT=2.0 PAT =2.0 Final T=2.0, thus T2.0/2.0/D0.5/06hrs. 05F currently lies in a favourable area underneath the 250hPa ridge axis. Shear in the area remains around 15 knots with increasing shear south of latitude 10S. SST around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. 05F is currently located on the back-end of a mid-level ridge which may steer it southwards in the next 24 hours. Global models that have captured the system generally move the system south which gradual deeepening. Potential for TD05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next in the next 24 hours is moderate to high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 301400 UTC. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 300745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 300600 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. ** WTJP31 RJTD 300900 *** WARNING 300900. WARNING VALID 010900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 945 HPA AT 13.5N 123.0E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 13.6N 119.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 300900UTC 13.5N 123.0E GOOD MOVE W 10KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 010900UTC 13.6N 119.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 020600UTC 14.2N 117.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 030600UTC 15.2N 116.2E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH RPLL 300600 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 0600 30 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0612) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE TWO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 010600 ONE TRHEE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR EAST AT 020600 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NROTH ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 030600 ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEAHTER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH20 RPMM 300600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 10 AT 0600 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0621) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE FOUR ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE TWO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 010600 ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR EAST AT 020600 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 030600 ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 301045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 300900 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (123.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (13.7 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (120.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (117.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.