** WTSR20 WSSS 291800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 300001 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 30/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 41.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 12 UTC: 12.9S / 41.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 00 UTC: 14.2S / 41.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, GENERATING HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED, WITH RECENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TRACKS NOW SOUTHWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACKS SOUTHWARDS INTENSYING SLOWLY..= ** WTIO30 FMEE 300001 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 41.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 015 SE: 015 SO: 015 NO: 015 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 12.9S/41.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 14.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/12/01 12 UTC: 15.8S/41.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 17.2S/41.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 19.0S/40.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/03 00 UTC: 20.5S/41.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5-. CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. IT GENERATES HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. IT IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH RECENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. DUE TO A LAKE OF INFLOW IN LOW LEVEL, THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HARDLY INTENSIFIES. THE SYSTEM TRACKS NOW SOUTH, AS FORECASTED BY MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIGHTLY INTENSIFY SOUTHWARDS ALONG AFRICAN COASTS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 300001 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 30/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 011/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 30/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 41.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 12 UTC: 12.9S / 41.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/12/01 AT 00 UTC: 14.2S / 41.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, GENERATING HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED, WITH RECENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TRACKS NOW SOUTHWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACKS SOUTHWARDS INTENSYING SLOWLY.. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 300001 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 30/11/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 011/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 30/11/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 2 999 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.6S / 41.8E (ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE ET UN DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 30/11/2006 A 12 UTC: 12.9S / 41.5E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 01/12/2006 A 00 UTC: 14.2S / 41.3E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE (ORAGEUSE) EST IMPORTANTE, AMENANT DES FORTES PLUIES SUR LE NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DES COMORES A LA COTE AFRICAINE. L'ORGANISATION DE LA CONVECTION S'EST LEGEREMENT AMELIOREE, AVEC FORMATION DE CONVECTION RECENTE AU DESSUS DU CENTRE. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME SE DIRIGE MAINTENANT EN DIRECTION DU SUD, ET EST PREVU POURSUIVRE VERS LE SUD LE LONG DES COTES AFRICAINES EN S'INTENSIFIANT DOUCEMENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 300001 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/30 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 41.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 015 SE: 015 SO: 015 NO: 015 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 12.9S/41.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 14.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/12/01 12 UTC: 15.8S/41.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 17.2S/41.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 19.0S/40.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/03 00 UTC: 20.5S/41.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5-. CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. IT GENERATES HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. IT IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH RECENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. DUE TO A LAKE OF INFLOW IN LOW LEVEL, THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HARDLY INTENSIFIES. THE SYSTEM TRACKS NOW SOUTH, AS FORECASTED BY MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIGHTLY INTENSIFY SOUTHWARDS ALONG AFRICAN COASTS. . ** WTPQ20 BABJ 300000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 300000 UTC 00HR 13.5N 124.6E 920HPA 60M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 160KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 14.0N 120.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 14.4N 117.4E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 15.1N 115.6E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 300000 *** WARNING 300000. WARNING VALID 010000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 940 HPA AT 13.4N 124.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 13.3N 120.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 14.1N 116.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 15.0N 114.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 300000UTC 13.4N 124.6E GOOD MOVE W 07KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 010000UTC 13.3N 120.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 020000UTC 14.1N 116.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 72HF 030000UTC 15.0N 114.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 300000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 300000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPH RPLL 291200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 07 AT 1200 29 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURIAN) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.3N126.4E MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KM RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE 275KM RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 54MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KM RADIUS OF 13MPS WITHIN 350KM RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE 275KM RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 301200 14.1N 122.6E AT 011200 14.5N 118.8E AND AT 021200 14.7N 115.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHE REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 300145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 300000 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (13.7 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. ** WTJP31 RJTD 300300 *** WARNING 300300. WARNING VALID 010300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 940 HPA AT 13.4N 124.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 13.4N 119.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 300300UTC 13.4N 124.1E GOOD MOVE W 09KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 090KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 010300UTC 13.4N 119.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 020000UTC 14.1N 116.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 69HF 030000UTC 15.0N 114.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTPH RPLL 300000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 09 AT 0000 30 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0621) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.4N 124.6E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI- CIRCLE 275KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 940HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 52MPS NEAR CENTER 33MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 275KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 010000 14.1N 121.6E AT 020000 15.1N 118.4E AND AT 030000 15.1N 115.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 300452 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.11.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 300452 ** WTPQ20 VHHH 300445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 300300 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (13.7 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.