** WTIO21 FMEE 291754 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 29/11/2006 A 1800 UTC.
NUMERO: 010/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 29/11/2006 A 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENE:         DEPRESSION TROPICALE 2 1000 HPA 
POSITION:          DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.1S / 41.8E 
(ONZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE ET UN DEGRES HUIT EST) A 1800 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:       SUD 6 KT
 
ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU
'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST

CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 25/30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON
DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT PRINCIPALEMENT
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 30/11/2006 A 06 UTC: 
12.1S / 41.5E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE.
A 24H POUR LE 30/11/2006 A 18 UTC: 
13.2S / 41.3E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE (ORAGEUSE) EST IMPORTANTE, AMENANT DES FORTES
PLUIES SUR LE NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DES COMORES A LA COTE
AFRICAINE. L'ORGANISATION DE LA CONVECTION S'EST LEGEREMENT AMELIOREE.

LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME SE DIRIGE MAINTENANT EN DIRECTION DU SUD, ET EST
PREVU POURSUIVRE VERS LE SUD EL LONG DES COTES AFRICAINES EN
S'INTENSIFIANT DOUCEMENT.





.


** WTPQ20 RJTD 291800 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TY 0621 DURIAN (0621)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  291800UTC 13.4N 125.4E GOOD
MOVE  W 09KT
PRES  925HPA
MXWD  100KT
50KT  85NM
30KT  200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  301800UTC 13.3N 121.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE  W 09KT
PRES  960HPA
MXWD  075KT
48HF  011800UTC 14.0N 117.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE  W 09KT
PRES  960HPA
MXWD  075KT
72HF  021800UTC 15.0N 115.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 06KT
PRES  950HPA
MXWD  080KT =


** WTJP21 RJTD 291800 ***
WARNING 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 925 HPA
AT 13.4N 125.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 85 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 13.3N 121.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 14.0N 117.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 15.0N 115.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


** WTPQ20 BABJ 291800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
SUPER TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 291800 UTC
00HR 13.5N 125.3E 915HPA 60M/S
30KTS 400KM
50KTS 160KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 14.1N 121.2E 950HPA 45M/S
P+48HR 14.8N 118.4E 960HPA 40M/S
P+72HR 14.9N 116.2E 960HPA 40M/S=


** WTKO20 RKSL 291800 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME TY 0621 DURIAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 291800UTC 13.4N 125.4E
MOVEMENT W 9KT
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 301800UTC 14.1N 121.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT
48HR
POSITION 011800UTC 14.7N 118.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 021800UTC 15.2N 116.2E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 80KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


** WTJP31 RJTD 292100 ***
WARNING 292100.
WARNING VALID 302100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 925 HPA
AT 13.4N 125.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 85 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 13.2N 121.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


** WTPQ20 RJTD 292100 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TY 0621 DURIAN (0621)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  292100UTC 13.4N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE  W 08KT
PRES  925HPA
MXWD  100KT
50KT  85NM
30KT  200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF  302100UTC 13.2N 121.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE  W 09KT
PRES  960HPA
MXWD  075KT
45HF  011800UTC 14.0N 117.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE  W 09KT
PRES  960HPA
MXWD  075KT
69HF  021800UTC 15.0N 115.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 06KT
PRES  950HPA
MXWD  080KT =


** WTPQ20 VHHH 292245 ***

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 292100 UTC, TYPHOON DURIAN (0621) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 
940 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF 
ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE TWO FIVE 
POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
WEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 95 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC 
ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (13.7 N) 
ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC 
ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) 
ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC 
ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (14.3 N) 
ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (116.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.