** WTSR20 WSSS 290600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 291212 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 41.8E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 00 UTC: 10.9S / 41.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 12 UTC: 11.5S / 41.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, GENERATING HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. IN LOW LEVEL, CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER WEAK. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWN DOWN AND CURVED SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, BUT THIS TENDANCY HAVE TO WAIT NEXT NIGHT TO BE CONFIRMED.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 291212 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 29/11/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 009/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 29/11/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 2 1002 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.5S / 41.8E (DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE ET UN DEGRES HUIT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 3 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 350 MN DANS LES QUADRANTS NORD-OUEST ET SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 30/11/2006 A 00 UTC: 10.9S / 41.4E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 30/11/2006 A 12 UTC: 11.5S / 41.2E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE (ORAGEUSE) EST IMPORTANTE, AMENANT DES FORTES PLUIES SUR LE NORD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, DES COMORES A LA COTE AFRICAINE. AU SOL, LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE RESTE ASSEZ FAIBLE. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME SEMBLE AVOIR RALENTI EN BIFURQUANT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST, MAIS CETTE TENDANCE DOIT ATTENDRE LA NUIT PROCHAINE AVANT D'ETRE CONFIRMEE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 291212 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 41.8E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 00 UTC: 10.9S / 41.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 12 UTC: 11.5S / 41.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, GENERATING HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. IN LOW LEVEL, CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER WEAK. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWN DOWN AND CURVED SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, BUT THIS TENDANCY HAVE TO WAIT NEXT NIGHT TO BE CONFIRMED. . ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST SUPER TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 291200 UTC 00HR 13.3N 126.4E 910HPA 65M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 14.2N 122.1E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 14.7N 118.1E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 14.8N 115.3E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTIO30 FMEE 291228 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/29 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 41.8E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.9S/41.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.5S/41.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 12.1S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/01 12 UTC: 13.1S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 14.3S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 15.5S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. IT GENERATES HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. IT IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SCATERED CURVED BANDS. DUE TO A LAKE OF INFLOW IN LOW LEVEL, THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HARDLY INTENSIFIES. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWN DOWN AND STARTED TO CURVE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, AS FORECASTED BY MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS. IF THIS TENDANCY IS CONRFIRMED DURING NEXT HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIGHTLY INTENSIFY ALONG AFRICAN COASTS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 291228 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/29 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 41.8E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.9S/41.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.5S/41.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 12.1S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/12/01 12 UTC: 13.1S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/12/02 00 UTC: 14.3S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/02 12 UTC: 15.5S/41.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. IT GENERATES HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. IT IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SCATERED CURVED BANDS. DUE TO A LAKE OF INFLOW IN LOW LEVEL, THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HARDLY INTENSIFIES. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWN DOWN AND STARTED TO CURVE SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS, AS FORECASTED BY MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS. IF THIS TENDANCY IS CONRFIRMED DURING NEXT HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIGHTLY INTENSIFY ALONG AFRICAN COASTS. . ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 291200UTC 13.3N 126.4E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 301200UTC 13.4N 122.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 011200UTC 13.9N 118.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 021200UTC 14.7N 115.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 291200 *** WARNING 291200. WARNING VALID 301200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 915 HPA AT 13.3N 126.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 13.4N 122.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 13.9N 118.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 14.7N 115.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 291500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ SUBJ: TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 014 1. SUPER TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 126.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 126.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 13.6N 124.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 14.0N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 14.5N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.0N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 15.3N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 14.8N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 14.2N 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 125.8E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 291500UTC 13.3N 125.9E GOOD MOVE W 08KT PRES 915HPA MXWD 105KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 301500UTC 13.3N 122.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 011200UTC 13.9N 118.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 021200UTC 14.7N 115.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 291500 *** WARNING 291500. WARNING VALID 301500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 915 HPA AT 13.3N 125.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 13.3N 122.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 291200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 07 AT 1200 29 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURIAN) {0621} WAS LOCATED BY RADAR,SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FOUR EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMI-CICLE TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE THREE EIGHT HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FIVE FOUR METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTHEAST SEMI- CIRCLE TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 301200 ONE FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX EAST AT 011200 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 021200 0NE FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 291710 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.11.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 291710 ** WTIO30 FMEE 291754 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/29 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1S / 41.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 28 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 12.1S/41.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.7S/41.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.3S/40.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.7S/40.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.0S/40.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. IT GENERATES HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. IT IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SCATERED CURVED BANDS. DUE TO A LAKE OF INFLOW IN LOW LEVEL, THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HARDLY INTENSIFIES. THE SYSTEM TRACKS NOW SOUTH, AS FORECASTED BY MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIGHTLY INTENSIFY SOUTHWARDS ALONG AFRICAN COASTS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 291754 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1S / 41.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 06 UTC: 12.1S / 41.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 18 UTC: 13.2S / 41.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, GENERATING HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TRACKS NOW SOUTHWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACKS SOUTHWARDS INTENSYING SLOWLY..= ** WTIO30 FMEE 291754 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/29 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1S / 41.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 28 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 12.1S/41.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 14.7S/41.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/12/01 18 UTC: 16.3S/40.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/12/02 06 UTC: 17.7S/40.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/12/02 18 UTC: 19.0S/40.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+. CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, ENHANCED BY A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. IT GENERATES HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. IT IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SCATERED CURVED BANDS. DUE TO A LAKE OF INFLOW IN LOW LEVEL, THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION HARDLY INTENSIFIES. THE SYSTEM TRACKS NOW SOUTH, AS FORECASTED BY MAIN NUMERICAL MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIGHTLY INTENSIFY SOUTHWARDS ALONG AFRICAN COASTS. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 291754 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 010/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.1S / 41.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25/30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 06 UTC: 12.1S / 41.5E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 18 UTC: 13.2S / 41.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTIVE (THUNDERY) ACTIVITY IS IMPORTANT, GENERATING HEAVY RAINS ON THE NORTH OF MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, FROM THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO TO AFRICAN COASTS. ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TRACKS NOW SOUTHWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACKS SOUTHWARDS INTENSYING SLOWLY.. .