** WTSR20 WSSS 281800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 290017 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 42.0E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 12 UTC: 9.8S / 41.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 00 UTC: 10.2S / 40.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK. MANY CENTERS SEEM TO CO -EXIST: MAIN CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ASSOCIATED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING, AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL CYCLE. THUNDERY ACTIVITY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, NORTH OF 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 290017 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 42.0E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 12 UTC: 9.8S / 41.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 00 UTC: 10.2S / 40.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK. MANY CENTERS SEEM TO CO -EXIST: MAIN CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ASSOCIATED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING, AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL CYCLE. THUNDERY ACTIVITY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, NORTH OF 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 290017 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 29/11/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 007/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 29/11/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6S / 42.0E (NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 29/11/2006 A 12 UTC: 9.8S / 41.1E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 30/11/2006 A 00 UTC: 10.2S / 40.2E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE EST FAIBLE. PLUSIEURS CENTRES SEMBLENT COEXISTER : LE CENTRE PRINCIPAL EST D'AUTANT PLUS DIFFICILE A LOCALISER .. LA CONVECTION RESTE TRES FLUCTUANTE ET INORGANISEE, SUBISSANT LE CYCLE DIURNE. L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST IMPORTANTE EN PERIPHERIE DE CE SYSTEME, AU NORD DE 15S DE LA COTE MALGACHE A LA COTE AFRICAINE VIA L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES .. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 290023 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/29 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 42.0E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 09.8S/41.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.2S/40.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.5S/39.5E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0-. MANY CENTERS SEEM TO CO-EXIST (TRMM 1649Z): MAIN CENTRE IS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK (QUIKSCAT 1449Z) AND VERY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION HAS REBUILT CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRE OVER THE LAST HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK, BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK : NO SIGNIFICANT MOONSON FLOW AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERY ACTIVTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 290023 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/29 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 42.0E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 09.8S/41.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.2S/40.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.5S/39.5E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0-. MANY CENTERS SEEM TO CO-EXIST (TRMM 1649Z): MAIN CENTRE IS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK (QUIKSCAT 1449Z) AND VERY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION HAS REBUILT CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRE OVER THE LAST HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK, BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK : NO SIGNIFICANT MOONSON FLOW AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERY ACTIVTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 290035 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 42.0E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 12 UTC: 9.8S / 41.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 00 UTC: 10.2S / 40.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK. MANY CENTERS SEEM TO CO -EXIST: MAIN CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ASSOCIATED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING, AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL CYCLE. THUNDERY ACTIVITY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, NORTH OF 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 290035 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 29/11/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 007/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MERCREDI 29/11/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6S / 42.0E (NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 29/11/2006 A 12 UTC: 9.8S / 41.1E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 30/11/2006 A 00 UTC: 10.2S / 40.2E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE EST FAIBLE. PLUSIEURS CENTRES SEMBLENT COEXISTER : LE CENTRE PRINCIPAL EST D'AUTANT PLUS DIFFICILE A LOCALISER .. LA CONVECTION RESTE TRES FLUCTUANTE ET INORGANISEE, SUBISSANT LE CYCLE DIURNE. L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST IMPORTANTE EN PERIPHERIE DE CE SYSTEME, AU NORD DE 15S DE LA COTE MALGACHE A LA COTE AFRICAINE VIA L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES .. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 290035 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 29/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 29/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.6S / 42.0E (NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 12 UTC: 9.8S / 41.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/30 AT 00 UTC: 10.2S / 40.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK. MANY CENTERS SEEM TO CO -EXIST: MAIN CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. ASSOCIATED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING, AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL CYCLE. THUNDERY ACTIVITY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, NORTH OF 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. . ** WTJP21 RJTD 290000 *** WARNING 290000. WARNING VALID 300000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 950 HPA AT 13.0N 128.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 13.8N 124.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 14.1N 120.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 14.4N 116.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 290000UTC 13.0N 128.6E GOOD MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 300000UTC 13.8N 124.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 935HPA MXWD 090KT 48HF 010000UTC 14.1N 120.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 020000UTC 14.4N 116.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 290000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 290000 UTC 00HR 13.0N 128.6E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 14.4N 123.9E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 14.9N 120.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 14.9N 117.0E 950HPA 45M/S= ** WTPH RPLL 281800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 04 AT 1800 28 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0621) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METER PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 291800 ONE FOUR POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT TWO EAST AT 301800 ONE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 011800 ONE SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ30 RJTD 290000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 290000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 290300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ SUBJ: TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 014 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 128.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 128.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 13.6N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 14.2N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 14.7N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 15.3N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 15.9N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 16.5N 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 16.6N 116.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 290300Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 128.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 290300 *** WARNING 290300. WARNING VALID 300300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 940 HPA AT 13.1N 127.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 220 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 13.7N 124.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 290300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 290300UTC 13.1N 127.9E GOOD MOVE W 15KT PRES 940HPA MXWD 085KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 170NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 300300UTC 13.7N 124.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 930HPA MXWD 090KT 45HF 010000UTC 14.1N 120.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 020000UTC 14.4N 116.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPH RPLL 290000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 05 AT 0000 29 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0621) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THRE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NOTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300000 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 010000 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 020000 ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NOTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITH- IN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH RPLL 290000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 05 AT 0000 29 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0621) WAS LOCATED BY RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THRE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NOTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 300000 ONE FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 010000 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 020000 ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NOTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITH- IN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD