** WTIO22 FMEE 281814 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 42.3E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 06 UTC: 9.5S / 40.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 18 UTC: 10.7S / 39.3E, OVERLAND. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTER RELOCATED AT 1200Z ONE DEGREE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK. ASSOCIATED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING, AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL CYCLE. THUNDERY ACTIVITY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, NORTH OF 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 281814 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 42.3E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/29 06 UTC: 09.5S/40.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/29 18 UTC: 10.7S/39.3E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 12.5S/39.0E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0-. CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE. LAST TRMM AT 0658Z HAS SHOWN A RELIABLE POSITION NEAR 8.9S/44.2E. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK (QUIKSCAT 1449Z) AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS COMPLETELY DISORGANIZED OVER TH LAST HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK, BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK : NO SIGNIFICANT MOONSON FLOW AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERY ACTIVTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 281814 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/11/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 006/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 28/11/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.1S / 42.3E (NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 250 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 400 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 29/11/2006 A 06 UTC: 9.5S / 40.6E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 29/11/2006 A 18 UTC: 10.7S / 39.3E, DEPR. SUR TERRE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: POSITION 1200Z RECALEE UN DEGRE DANS LE NORD-EST. LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE EST FAIBLE. LE CENTRE EST DIFFICLE A LOCALISER PRECISEMENT. LA CONVECTION RESTE TRES FLUCTUANTE ET INORGANISEE , SUBISSANT LE CYCLE DIURNE. L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST IMPORTANTE EN PERIPHERIE DE CE SYSTEME, AU NORD DE 15S DE LA COTE MALGACHE A LA COTE AFRICAINE VIA L'ARCHIPEL DES COMORES .. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 281814 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 42.3E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 06 UTC: 9.5S / 40.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 18 UTC: 10.7S / 39.3E, OVERLAND. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTER RELOCATED AT 1200Z ONE DEGREE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK. ASSOCIATED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING, AND UNDERGOES DIURNAL CYCLE. THUNDERY ACTIVITY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, NORTH OF 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 281814 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 42.3E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/29 06 UTC: 09.5S/40.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/29 18 UTC: 10.7S/39.3E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 12.5S/39.0E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0-. CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE. LAST TRMM AT 0658Z HAS SHOWN A RELIABLE POSITION NEAR 8.9S/44.2E. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK (QUIKSCAT 1449Z) AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS COMPLETELY DISORGANIZED OVER TH LAST HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK, BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK : NO SIGNIFICANT MOONSON FLOW AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERY ACTIVTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 281814 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 42.3E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 0.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/29 06 UTC: 09.5S/40.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/29 18 UTC: 10.7S/39.3E OVERLAND. 36H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 12.5S/39.0E OVERLAND. 48H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0-. CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE. LAST TRMM AT 0658Z HAS SHOWN A RELIABLE POSITION NEAR 8.9S/44.2E. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS WEAK (QUIKSCAT 1449Z) AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS COMPLETELY DISORGANIZED OVER TH LAST HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK, BUT LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK : NO SIGNIFICANT MOONSON FLOW AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. NEVERTHELESS, THUNDERY ACTIVTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO AFRICAN COASTLINE VIA COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO. . ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 281800 UTC 00HR 12.6N 130.1E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 14.7N 125.2E 945HPA 45M/S P+48HR 16.1N 121.1E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 16.4N 118.0E 965HPA 35M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 281800UTC 12.6N 130.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 291800UTC 13.5N 125.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 301800UTC 13.1N 120.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 011800UTC 13.1N 117.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 281800 *** WARNING 281800. WARNING VALID 291800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 965 HPA AT 12.6N 130.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 13.5N 125.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 13.1N 120.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 13.1N 117.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 281800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 281800UTC 12.6N 130.1E MOVEMENT WNW 13KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 291800UTC 13.8N 125.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 72KT 48HR POSITION 301800UTC 14.0N 121.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 011800UTC 13.9N 117.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 282100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 130.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 130.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 13.3N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 13.9N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 14.7N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 15.3N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.1N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 16.9N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 17.4N 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 282100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 129.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 282120 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON DURIAN (24W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST WED NOV 29 2006 ...TYPHOON DURIAN (24W) CROSSES 130E... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.4 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 630 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TYPHOON DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. DURIAN IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. DURIAN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...12.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 129.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON DURIAN. $$ MARN ** WTJP31 RJTD 282100 *** WARNING 282100. WARNING VALID 292100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0621 DURIAN (0621) 960 HPA AT 13.0N 129.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 160 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 14.0N 125.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 282100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 282100UTC 13.0N 129.5E FAIR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 200NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 292100UTC 14.0N 125.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 301800UTC 13.1N 120.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 011800UTC 13.1N 117.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 281800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 04 AT 1800 28 NOVEMBER TYPOON (DURIAN) {0621) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 291800 ONE FOUR POINT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT TWO EAST AT 301800 0NE FIVE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 011800 ONE SIX POINT TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 281800 *** TTT TYPHOON 04 AT 1800 28 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0621)UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 12.6N 130.1E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 350 KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250 KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 13MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100 KILOMETER RADUIS 13MPS WITHIN 350 KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250 KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST AT 291800 14.3N 125.2E AT 301800 15.5N 121.0E AND AT 011800 16.2N 117.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 281800 *** TTT TYPHOON 04 AT 1800 28 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (DURIAN) (0621)UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 12.6N 130.1E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 350 KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250 KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 13MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100 KILOMETER RADUIS 13MPS WITHIN 350 KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250 KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST AT 291800 14.3N 125.2E AT 301800 15.5N 121.0E AND AT 011800 16.2N 117.1E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTXS21 PGTW 290000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 282351ZNOV06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S 43.6E TO 11.3S 40.9E WITH- IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS- SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 281800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 42.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 44.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 42.9E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT OF THE DISTURBANCE CONTRIBUTING TO GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 300000Z.//