** WTIO22 FMEE 281201 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 44.3E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 00 UTC: 9.8S / 43.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 12 UTC: 10.1S / 41.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING, DU E TO DIURNAL CYCLE. SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN, EVEN IF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK ON THE AREA. CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY, NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 281202 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 44.3E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 09.8S/43.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 10.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.7S/41.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 12.2S/40.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 13.7S/40.2E OVERLAND. 72H: 2006/12/01 12 UTC: 14.8S/40.1E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0-. CI=2.0. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEVER WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE.= ** WTSR20 WSSS 280600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 281202 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 44.3E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 09.8S/43.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 10.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.7S/41.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 12.2S/40.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 13.7S/40.2E OVERLAND. 72H: 2006/12/01 12 UTC: 14.8S/40.1E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0-. CI=2.0. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEVER WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 281201 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.7S / 44.3E (NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 00 UTC: 9.8S / 43.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 12 UTC: 10.1S / 41.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING, DU E TO DIURNAL CYCLE. SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN, EVEN IF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK ON THE AREA. CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY, NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 281201 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/11/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 005/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 28/11/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 2 1002 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.7S / 44.3E (NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE-QUATRE DEGRES TROIS EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 250 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE,PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 400 MN DANS LE SECTEUR EST-E SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 29/11/2006 A 00 UTC: 9.8S / 43.2E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 29/11/2006 A 12 UTC: 10.1S / 41.9E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: T=2.0-. CI=2.0. LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE PEINE ENCORE A S'ORGANISER. LA CONVECTION RESTE TRES FLUCTUANTE, SUBISSANT LE CYCLE DIURNE. LE SYSTEME PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLEE ALORS QUE LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT EST FAIBLE. L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST IMPORTANTE EN PERIPHERIE DE CE SYSTEME, AU NORD DE 15S DE LA COTE DE MADAGASCAR AUX COMORES ET A LA COTE AFRICAINE. . ** WTPQ20 BABJ 281200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 281200 UTC 00HR 12.2N 131.6E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 14.1N 126.3E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 15.6N 123.4E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 16.2N 119.9E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 281200 *** WARNING 281200. WARNING VALID 291200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 975 HPA AT 12.2N 131.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 13.6N 126.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 13.6N 122.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 13.6N 118.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 281200UTC 12.2N 131.4E FAIR MOVE W 16KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 291200UTC 13.6N 126.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 301200UTC 13.6N 122.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 011200UTC 13.6N 118.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 281500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 012 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 131.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 131.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 12.9N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 13.8N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 14.7N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 15.7N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.6N 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.4N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 17.9N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT --- REMARKS: 281500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 131.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 281200 *** TTT STORM WARNING 03 AT 1200 28 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DURIAN) (0621) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 12.2N 131.5E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 31MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRLCE 250KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 291200 13.8N 126.6E AT 301200 15.1N 122.5E AND AT 011200 16.2N 118.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 281200 *** TTT STORM WARNING 03 AT 1200 28 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DURIAN) {0621} WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITH- IN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ESLSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METER PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CICLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILO- METER RADIUS ESLSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 291200 ONE THREE EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX POINT SIX EAST AT 301200 ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 011200 ONE SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ31 PGUM 281523 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TYPHOON DURIAN (24W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 200 AM GUAM LST WED NOV 29 2006 ...DURIAN (24W) NOW A TYPHOON... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 520 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 930 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TYPHOON DURIAN IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. DURIAN IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. DURIAN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND 131.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ HENDRICKS ** WTJP31 RJTD 281500 *** WARNING 281500. WARNING VALID 291500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 970 HPA AT 12.3N 130.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 17 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 13.6N 126.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 281500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 281500UTC 12.3N 130.5E FAIR MOVE W 17KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 45NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 291500UTC 13.6N 126.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 301200UTC 13.6N 122.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 011200UTC 13.6N 118.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT = ** WTPH RPLL 281200 *** TTT STORM WARNING 03 AT 1200 28 SEPTEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DURIAN) (0621) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 12.2N 131.5E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 250KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 31MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 100KMS RADIUS 13MPS WITHIN 350KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRLCE 250KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 291200 13.8N 126.6E AT 301200 15.1N 122.5E AND AT 011200 16.2N 118.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 281734 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.11.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 281734