** WTNT80 EGRR 280602 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.11.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280602 ** WTIO22 FMEE 280605 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 4/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1001 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 45.6E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI -CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 18 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 06 UTC: 9.7S / 43.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN. THE EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MODERATE AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280606 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 45.6E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 18 UTC: 09.5S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2006/11/29 06 UTC: 09.7S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2006/11/29 18 UTC: 10.3S/42.1E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 11.6S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 60H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.4S/41.2E, MAX WIND=045KT. 72H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 15.3S/40.7E, MAX WIND=050KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEVER WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .= ** WTIO22 FMEE 280605 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 4/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1001 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 45.6E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI -CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 18 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 06 UTC: 9.7S / 43.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN. THE EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MODERATE AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 280605 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/11/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 4/2 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 28/11/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 2 1001 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.1S / 45.6E (NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE-CINQ DEGRES SIX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE,PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 28/11/2006 A 18 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, VENT MAX = 25 KT. A 24H POUR LE 29/11/2006 A 06 UTC: 9.7S / 43.3E, VENT MAX = 30 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE PEINE ENCORE A S'ORGANISER. LA CONVECTION SEMBLE MIEUX ORGANISEE, MAIS LE SYSTEME PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLEE SOUS L'EFFET D'UNCOURANT D'EST D'ALTITUDE PREVU FAIBLIR. L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST IMPORTANTE EN PERIPHERIE DE CE SYSTEME, DU NORD DE 15S DE LA COTE DE MADAGASCAR AUX COMORES ET A LA COTE AFRICAINE. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 280606 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 45.6E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 18 UTC: 09.5S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2006/11/29 06 UTC: 09.7S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2006/11/29 18 UTC: 10.3S/42.1E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 11.6S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 60H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.4S/41.2E, MAX WIND=045KT. 72H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 15.3S/40.7E, MAX WIND=050KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEVER WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 280608 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 4/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1001 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 45.6E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI -CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 18 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 06 UTC: 9.7S / 43.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN. THE EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MODERATE AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 280608 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/11/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 4/2 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 28/11/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 2 1001 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.1S / 45.6E (NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE-CINQ DEGRES SIX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE,PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 28/11/2006 A 18 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, VENT MAX = 25 KT. A 24H POUR LE 29/11/2006 A 06 UTC: 9.7S / 43.3E, VENT MAX = 30 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE PEINE ENCORE A S'ORGANISER. LA CONVECTION SEMBLE MIEUX ORGANISEE, MAIS LE SYSTEME PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE STRUCTURE CISAILLEE SOUS L'EFFET D'UNCOURANT D'EST D'ALTITUDE PREVU FAIBLIR. L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST IMPORTANTE EN PERIPHERIE DE CE SYSTEME, DU NORD DE 15S DE LA COTE DE MADAGASCAR AUX COMORES ET A LA COTE AFRICAINE. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 280608 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 45.6E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 18 UTC: 09.5S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2006/11/29 06 UTC: 09.7S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2006/11/29 18 UTC: 10.3S/42.1E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 11.6S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 60H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.4S/41.2E, MAX WIND=045KT. 72H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 15.3S/40.7E, MAX WIND=050KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEVER WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280608 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 45.6E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 18 UTC: 09.5S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2006/11/29 06 UTC: 09.7S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2006/11/29 18 UTC: 10.3S/42.1E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2006/11/30 06 UTC: 11.6S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 60H: 2006/11/30 18 UTC: 13.4S/41.2E, MAX WIND=045KT. 72H: 2006/12/01 06 UTC: 15.3S/40.7E, MAX WIND=050KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEVER WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 280608 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 4/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1001 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1S / 45.6E (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI -CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, REACHING LOCALY 30KT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 18 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 06 UTC: 9.7S / 43.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT SYSTEME ALWAYS SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN. THE EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MODERATE AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY NORTH TO 15S, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 280642 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 28-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 13.0 DEG.N (.) ==== ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 280600 UTC 00HR 11.8N 133.1E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 13.0N 127.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 14.9N 123.6E 940HPA 50M/S P+72HR 15.6N 120.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 280600UTC 11.9N 133.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 290600UTC 13.3N 128.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 300600UTC 14.1N 123.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 010600UTC 14.4N 119.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 280600 *** WARNING 280600. WARNING VALID 290600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 980 HPA AT 11.9N 133.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 13.3N 128.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 14.1N 123.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 14.4N 119.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 280600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 18 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 280600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME STS 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 280600UTC 11.9N 133.1E MOVEMENT WNW 15KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 290600UTC 13.3N 128.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 48HR POSITION 300600UTC 14.3N 124.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 010600UTC 15.6N 120.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 133.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 133.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 12.9N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 13.8N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 14.6N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 15.7N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.7N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 17.4N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.2N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 132.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 280900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 133.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 133.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 12.9N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 13.8N 127.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 14.6N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 15.7N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.7N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 17.4N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.2N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 132.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 280600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 02 AT 0600 28 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DURIAN) (0621) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI- CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 290600 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AT 300600 ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 010600 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH20 RPMM 280600 *** TTT STORM WARNING 02 AT 0600 28 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DURIAN) (0621) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE THREE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI- CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO NINE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 290600 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AT 300600 ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 010600 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 280900 *** WARNING 280900. WARNING VALID 290900. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 980 HPA AT 12.1N 132.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 13.5N 127.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 280900UTC 12.1N 132.5E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 290900UTC 13.5N 127.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 300600UTC 14.1N 123.7E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 010600UTC 14.4N 119.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 280946 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST TUE NOV 28 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) NEARLY A TYPHOON... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 830 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 MPH. DURIAN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TYPHOON OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...12.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 132.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST WEDNESDAY MORNING. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE