** WTSR20 WSSS 271800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 280003 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 3/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 45.8E (EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 12 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 00 UTC: 9.6S / 44.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER FLUCTUATING. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF THIS, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .= ** WTIO22 FMEE 280003 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 3/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 45.8E (EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 12 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 00 UTC: 9.6S / 44.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER FLUCTUATING. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF THIS, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 280003 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/11/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 3/2 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 28/11/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.8S / 45.8E (HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE-CINQ DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 28/11/2006 A 12 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 29/11/2006 A 00 UTC: 9.6S / 44.3E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE PEINE A S'ORGANISER. LE SYSTEME NUAGEUX ASSOCIE DEMEURE TRES FLUCTUANT. NEANMOINS, L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST IMPORTANTE EN PERIPHERIE DE CE SYSTEME, DU NORD DE MADAGASCAR AUX COMORES ET A LA COTE AFRICAINE. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 280010 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 45.8E (EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 12 UTC: 09.5S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 09.6S/44.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 10.1S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.7S/42.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.2S/42.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 11.8S/41.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0- THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANISES. LOW LEVELS INFLOW IS POOR: NO SIGNIFICANT MONSOON FLOW, AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEV ER WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280010 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 45.8E (EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 12 UTC: 09.5S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 09.6S/44.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 10.1S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.7S/42.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.2S/42.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 11.8S/41.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0- THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANISES. lOW LEVELS INFLOW IS POOR: NO SIGNIFICANT MONSOON FLOW, AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEV ER WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS . ** WTIO22 FMEE 280024 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 45.8E (EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 12 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 00 UTC: 9.6S / 43.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER FLUCTUATING. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF THIS, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280025 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 45.8E (EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 12 UTC: 09.5S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 09.6S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 10.1S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.7S/42.3E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.2S/42.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 11.8S/41.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0- THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANISES. LOW LEVELS INFLOW IS POOR: NO SIGNIFICANT MONSOON FLOW, AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEV ER WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 280025 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 45.8E (EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 12 UTC: 09.5S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 09.6S/43.3E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 10.1S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.7S/42.3E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.2S/42.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/12/01 00 UTC: 11.8S/41.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0- THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANISES. lOW LEVELS INFLOW IS POOR: NO SIGNIFICANT MONSOON FLOW, AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE HOWEV ER WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO BE WEAKENING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 280024 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 28/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 28/11/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8S / 45.8E (EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 12 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/29 AT 00 UTC: 9.6S / 43.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER FLUCTUATING. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF THIS, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 280024 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 28/11/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 003/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 28/11/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 2 1003 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.8S / 45.8E (HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE-CINQ DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 350 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 30 KT. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 28/11/2006 A 12 UTC: 9.5S / 44.7E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 29/11/2006 A 00 UTC: 9.6S / 43.3E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE PEINE A S'ORGANISER. LE SYSTEME NUAGEUX ASSOCIE DEMEURE TRES FLUCTUANT. NEANMOINS, L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST IMPORTANTE EN PERIPHERIE DE CE SYSTEME, DU NORD DE MADAGASCAR AUX COMORES ET A LA COTE AFRICAINE. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. . ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 280000 UTC 00HR 11.3N 134.7E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 12.6N 129.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 14.0N 124.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 15.6N 121.0E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 280000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 280000 UTC 00HR 11.3N 134.7E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 260KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 12.6N 129.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 14.0N 124.4E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 15.6N 121.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 280000 *** WARNING 280000. WARNING VALID 290000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 985 HPA AT 11.3N 134.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 12.8N 129.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 14.1N 124.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 13.9N 120.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 280000UTC 11.3N 134.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 290000UTC 12.8N 129.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 300000UTC 14.1N 124.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 010000UTC 13.9N 120.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 280000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 280000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE GRADUALLY TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 280300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 11.4N 134.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 134.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 12.4N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 13.4N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 14.2N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 14.8N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 15.8N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.7N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 17.8N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 134.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 280306 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 200 PM GUAM LST TUE NOV 28 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) MOVING AWAY FROM YAP AND PALAU... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP...OR ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. DURIAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF DURIAN ARE 65 MPH. DURIAN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 PM GUAM LST POSITION...11.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 8 PM GUAM LST. COPIES OF THIS ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT THE GUAM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/. $$ BIRCHARD/HOUSTON ** WTPH20 RPMM 280000 *** T T T STORM WARNING 01 AT 0000 28 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DURIAN)(0621) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO FIVE KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ON THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETER NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO FIVE KILOMETER ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 290000 ONE TWO POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AT 300000 ONE FOUR POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST AND AT 010000 ONE FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STOREM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 280300 *** WARNING 280300. WARNING VALID 290300. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 980 HPA AT 11.4N 134.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 13.1N 128.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 280300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 280300UTC 11.4N 134.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 160NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 290300UTC 13.1N 128.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 300000UTC 14.1N 124.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 010000UTC 13.9N 120.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPH RPLL 280000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 01 AT 0000 28 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DURIAN) (0621) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETER NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO FIVE KILOMETER ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETER NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO FIVE KILOMETER ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 290000 ONE TWO POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AT 300000 ONE FOUR POINT ONE POINT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST AND AT 010000 ONE FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE.ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. ** WTPH RPLL 280000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 01 AT 0000 28 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (DURIAN) (0621) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ONE POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETER NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO FIVE KILOMETER ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO SEVEN FIVE KILOMETER NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE TWO TWO FIVE KILOMETER ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 290000 ONE TWO POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AT 300000 ONE FOUR POINT ONE POINT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST AND AT 010000 ONE FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE.ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD.