** WTNT80 EGRR 271810 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.11.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271810 ** WTJP21 RJTD 271800 *** WARNING 271800. WARNING VALID 281800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 990 HPA AT 10.8N 136.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 12.1N 130.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 13.5N 125.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 13.5N 122.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 271800UTC 10.8N 136.1E FAIR MOVE W 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 281800UTC 12.1N 130.0E 100NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 291800UTC 13.5N 125.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 301800UTC 13.5N 122.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 271800 UTC 00HR 11.0N 136.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 220KM 50KTS 30KM P12HR W 25KM/H P+24HR 12.1N 131.1E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 13.6N 126.1E 950HPA 45M/S P+72HR 14.6N 122.0E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 271800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME STS 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 271800UTC 10.8N 136.1E MOVEMENT W 15KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 51KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 281800UTC 12.4N 131.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 48HR POSITION 291800UTC 13.6N 126.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT 72HR POSITION 301800UTC 14.2N 122.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 272100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271800Z --- NEAR 11.0N 136.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 136.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 11.8N 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 12.8N 131.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 13.6N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 14.4N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 15.4N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.5N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 18.2N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT --- REMARKS: 272100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 136.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH- WEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TRACK IS A DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, INDICATING A SLOW-DOWN AND A MORE NORTHWARD TURN AS THE TC ENCOUNTERS A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LUZON. PAST TAU 72, TS 24W WILL BE IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, CAUSING THE SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 272114 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 800 AM GUAM LST TUE NOV 28 2006 ...INTENSIFYING TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) MOVING AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.0 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 175 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP...OR ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH. DURIAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF DURIAN HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. DURIAN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A TYPHOON WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 7 AM GUAM LST POSITION...11.2 DEGREES NORTH AND 136.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM GUAM LST. COPIES OF THIS ADVISORY WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT THE GUAM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/. $$ BIRCHARD/HOUSTON ** WTJP31 RJTD 272100 *** WARNING 272100. WARNING VALID 282100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 990 HPA AT 10.9N 135.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 12.5N 129.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 272100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 272100UTC 10.9N 135.4E FAIR MOVE W 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 282100UTC 12.5N 129.4E 100NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 291800UTC 13.5N 125.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 301800UTC 13.5N 122.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT =