** WTSR20 WSSS 270600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 271207 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.7S / 46.7E (SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN, WESTERN, AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT OR EVEN 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 00 UTC: 8.4S / 45.7E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 12 UTC: 9.1S / 44.9E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER FLUCTUATING. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OFTHIS, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. RELOCATED CENTRE 0.5 DEGREE EASTWARDS AT 0000Z. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 271207 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.7S / 46.7E (SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 00 UTC: 08.4S/45.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/28 12 UTC: 09.1S/44.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 09.8S/43.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 10.1S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.6S/42.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.1S/42.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANISES. LOW LEVELS INFLOW IS POOR: NO SIGNIFICANT MONSOON FLOW, AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE TO RA THER STRONG. HOWEVER WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. RELOCATED CENTRE 0.5 DEGREE EASTWARDS AT 0000Z. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .= ** WTIO22 FMEE 271207 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 27/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 27/11/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1005 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.7S / 46.7E (SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN, WESTERN, AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT OR EVEN 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 00 UTC: 8.4S / 45.7E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2006/11/28 AT 12 UTC: 9.1S / 44.9E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANIZES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER FLUCTUATING. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OFTHIS, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. RELOCATED CENTRE 0.5 DEGREE EASTWARDS AT 0000Z. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 271207 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/2/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2006/11/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.7S / 46.7E (SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/11/28 00 UTC: 08.4S/45.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/11/28 12 UTC: 09.1S/44.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/11/29 00 UTC: 09.8S/43.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/11/29 12 UTC: 10.1S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/11/30 00 UTC: 10.6S/42.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/11/30 12 UTC: 11.1S/42.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BARELY ORGANISES. lOW LEVELS INFLOW IS POOR: NO SIGNIFICANT MONSOON FLOW, AND ESTABLISHED BUT WEAK TRADE WINDS. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS FLUCTUATING, FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE TO RA THER STRONG. HOWEVER WINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT IN THE PERIPHERY OF THIS ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER, FROM NORTHERN MADAGASCAR TO COMOROS AND AFRICAN COASTLINE. RELOCATED CENTRE 0.5 DEGREE EASTWARDS AT 0000Z. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS .. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 271207 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 27/11/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 002/02 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 27/11/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 2 1005 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.7S / 46.7E (SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE-SIX DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LES QUADRANTS EST, SUD ET OUEST. CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 15/20 KT ET MER AGITEE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT 25 KT, VOIRE 30 KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 28/11/2006 A 00 UTC: 8.4S / 45.7E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 28/11/2006 A 12 UTC: 9.1S / 44.9E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE PEINE A S'ORGANISER. LE SYSTEME NUAGEUX ASSOCIE RESTE DEMEURE TRES FLUCTUANT. NEANMOINS, L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE EST IMPORTANTE EN PERIPHERIE DE CE SYSTEME, DU NORD DE MADAGASCAR AUX COMORES ET A LA COTE AFRICAINE. CENTRE RELOCALISE 0.5 DEGRE A L'EST A 0000Z. L'INTENSITE DE CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. . ** WTPQ20 BABJ 271200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 271200 UTC 00HR 10.8N 137.9E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 12.1N 133.4E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 13.6N 127.9E 955HPA 45M/S P+72HR 14.7N 122.2E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 271200 *** WARNING 271200. WARNING VALID 281200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 990 HPA AT 10.6N 137.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 11.7N 132.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 13.2N 126.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 13.4N 122.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 271200UTC 10.6N 137.7E FAIR MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 281200UTC 11.7N 132.1E 100NM 70% MOVE W 14KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 291200UTC 13.2N 126.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 301200UTC 13.4N 122.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 271500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 10.7N 137.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 137.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 11.2N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 11.9N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 12.6N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 13.2N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 14.4N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.4N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 16.3N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 137.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z. // ** WTPQ31 PGUM 271515 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 200 AM GUAM LST TUE NOV 28 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 115 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST AT 11 MPH. DURIAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 55 MPH. DURIAN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 11 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONOLULU HAWAII NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. COPIES OF THIS ADVISORY WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE GUAM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/. $$ POWELL ** WTPQ20 RJTD 271500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 271500UTC 10.6N 136.7E FAIR MOVE W 16KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 281500UTC 12.0N 131.2E 100NM 70% MOVE W 15KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 291200UTC 13.2N 126.4E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 301200UTC 13.4N 122.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 271500 *** WARNING 271500. WARNING VALID 281500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 990 HPA AT 10.6N 136.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 12.0N 131.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=