** WTIN20 DEMS 270645 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 27-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 16.0 DEG.N (.) ==== ** WTJP21 RJTD 270600 *** WARNING 270600. WARNING VALID 280600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 994 HPA AT 10.1N 139.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 10.6N 134.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 12.4N 127.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 12.7N 123.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 270600UTC 10.1N 139.4E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 280600UTC 10.6N 134.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 290600UTC 12.4N 127.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 16KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 300600UTC 12.7N 123.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 270600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 270600 UTC 00HR 10.9N 138.7E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 12.0N 134.1E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 13.9N 128.2E 955HPA 45M/S P+72HR 14.7N 122.2E 930HPA 55M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 270600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 270600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 12 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 270600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TS 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 270600UTC 10.1N 139.4E MOVEMENT W 10KT PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 280600UTC 11.1N 134.6E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 290600UTC 12.5N 129.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 72HR POSITION 300600UTC 13.4N 125.2E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 270900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270600Z --- NEAR 10.7N 138.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 138.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 11.2N 135.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 11.9N 133.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 12.6N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 13.2N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 14.5N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 15.4N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 16.0N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT --- REMARKS: 270900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 137.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z. // ** WTPQ31 PGUM 270929 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 PM GUAM LST MON NOV 27 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) NOW MOVING AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 95 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP 145 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 175 MILES NORTH OF NGULU 205 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS AND 275 MILES NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. DURIAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 50 MPH. DURIAN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT AS FAR AS 55 MILES FROM THE CENTER...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 137.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONOLULU HAWAII NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT 2 AM GUAM LST. COPIES OF THIS ADVISORY WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE GUAM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/. $$ MCELROY ** WTJP31 RJTD 270900 *** WARNING 270900. WARNING VALID 280900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 994 HPA AT 10.4N 138.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 11.2N 133.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 270900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 270900UTC 10.4N 138.4E FAIR MOVE W 16KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 280900UTC 11.2N 133.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 290600UTC 12.4N 127.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 16KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 300600UTC 12.7N 123.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT =