** WTPQ20 BABJ 261800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 261800 UTC 00HR 10.5N 141.2E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 150KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 11.6N 136.3E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 12.8N 130.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 13.9N 125.7E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 261800 *** WARNING 261800. WARNING VALID 271800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 994 HPA AT 10.1N 141.4E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 10.0N 136.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 11.4N 131.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 12.3N 125.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 261800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 261800UTC 10.1N 141.4E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 90NM FORECAST 24HF 271800UTC 10.0N 136.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 281800UTC 11.4N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 291800UTC 12.3N 125.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 261906 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DURIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 5 AM GUAM LST MON NOV 27 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) PASSING NORTH OF FAIS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 4 AM GUAM LST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 140.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF FAIS 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF ULITHI 180 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM 470 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK TAKES DURIAN NORTH OF ULITHI THIS MORNING... AND NORTH OF YAP THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 4 AM POSITION...10.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 140.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 AM. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTKO20 RKSL 261800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 261800UTC 10.1N 141.4E MOVEMENT W 6KT PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 271800UTC 11.2N 137.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT 48HR POSITION 281800UTC 12.2N 132.2E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 72HR POSITION 291800UTC 13.3N 127.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 68KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 262100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261800Z --- NEAR 10.6N 140.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 140.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 11.1N 138.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 11.6N 135.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 12.1N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 12.6N 130.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291800Z --- 14.1N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 15.1N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.5N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 262100Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 139.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST- WARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIF- ICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 262132 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DURIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 730 AM GUAM LST MON NOV 27 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) PASSING NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI... AS OF 730 AM GUAM LST THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS ARE CANCELLED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED AT ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS. NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 139.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FAIS 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP 380 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM 495 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 139.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTJP31 RJTD 262100 *** WARNING 262100. WARNING VALID 272100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 994 HPA AT 10.1N 141.2E MARIANAS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 10.1N 136.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 262100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 262100UTC 10.1N 141.2E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 90NM FORECAST 24HF 272100UTC 10.1N 136.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 281800UTC 11.4N 131.2E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 291800UTC 12.3N 125.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ81 PGUM 262145 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ171-270200- TROPICAL STORM DURIAN LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 AM GUAM LST MON NOV 27 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN PASSING NORTH OF ULITHI... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF YAP... ULITHI AND FAIS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS WERE CANCELLED AT 730 AM GUAM LST. NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 139.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 75 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FAIS 60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. ...YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED AT ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS. ...WIND INFORMATION... EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS TROPICAL STORM DURIAN PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT 8 TO 10 FEET...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. FOR MORE ON THE SURF AT YAP...SEE THE LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT GUAM UNDER WMO HEADER WHPQ40 PGUM. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE FINAL LOCAL STATEMENT THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM DURIAN. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE