** WTSR20 WSSS 260600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 261200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 261200 UTC 00HR 10.3N 141.6E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 130KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 11.5N 137.1E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 12.5N 131.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 13.4N 126.7E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 261200 *** WARNING 261200. WARNING VALID 271200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) 996 HPA AT 10.1N 142.0E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 11.3N 137.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 12.0N 132.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 13.2N 127.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 261200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 261200UTC 10.1N 142.0E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 90NM FORECAST 24HF 271200UTC 11.3N 137.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 281200UTC 12.0N 132.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 291200UTC 13.2N 127.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 261258 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DURIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 11 PM GUAM LST SUN NOV 26 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS IN YAP STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 10 PM GUAM LST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FAIS 150 MILES EAST OF ULITHI 255 MILES EAST OF YAP 355 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NGULU 305 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND 435 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES TROPICAL STORM DURIAN NORTH OF ULITHI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND NORTH OF YAP LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS STILL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION...10.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 141.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 AM MONDAY MORNING GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. $$ MCELROY ** WTPN31 PGTW 261500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z --- NEAR 10.1N 141.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 141.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 10.8N 139.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 11.4N 136.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 11.9N 133.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 12.4N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 13.6N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 14.7N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.2N 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT --- REMARKS: 261500Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 141.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 261500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 261500UTC 10.1N 141.8E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 90NM FORECAST 24HF 271500UTC 10.7N 136.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 281200UTC 12.0N 132.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 291200UTC 13.2N 127.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 261550 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DURIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 2 AM GUAM LST MON NOV 27 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) INTENSIFYING SLOWLY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF FAIS 110 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI 220 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP 325 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM 450 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK TAKES DURIAN NORTH OF ULITHI THIS MORNING... AND NORTH OF YAP THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND 141.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 5 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTNT80 EGRR 261649 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.11.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 261649 ** WTPQ81 PGUM 261655 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ171-262300- TROPICAL STORM DURIAN LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 3 AM GUAM LST MON NOV 27 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN NEARING CLOSEST APPROACH TO FAIS... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF YAP... ULITHI AND FAIS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF FAIS 110 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI 220 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. ...YAP... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS ON YOUR PROPERTY. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ABOUT 105 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP AROUND 2 PM GUAM LST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT YAP IF DURIAN FOLLOWS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20 MPH AFTER SUNRISE...THEN BECOMING WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AROUND NOON. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT 8 TO 10 FEET...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ...ULITHI AND FAIS... ALL PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. REMAIN IN SHELTER UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. SMALL BOATS SHOULD STAY IN SAFE HAVEN. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM THE YAP EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS NEAR ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO FAIS...ABOUT 55 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLAND. DURIAN SHOULD PASS 50 MILES NORTH OF ULITHI AROUND 8 AM GUAM LST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS DURIAN PASSES. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH MAY RISE BRIEFLY TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH THROUGH 4 AM GUAM LST AT FAIS AND BETWEEN 6 AM AND 8 AM ON ULITHI. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE MORNING. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT 10 TO 12 FEET...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS INTO TUESDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE