** WTIN20 DEMS 260617 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 26-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL,SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 16.0 DEG.N (.) ==== ** WTJP21 RJTD 260600 *** WARNING 260600. WARNING VALID 270600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 10.1N 142.7E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 11.2N 138.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 12.0N 133.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 13.1N 128.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 260600UTC 10.1N 142.7E FAIR MOVE W 12KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 60NM FORECAST 24HF 270600UTC 11.2N 138.8E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 280600UTC 12.0N 133.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 72HF 290600UTC 13.1N 128.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ31 PGUM 260715 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DURIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 5 PM GUAM LST SUN NOV 26 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) CONTINUES CHURNING WEST-NORTHWEST... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP...NGULU...ULITHI AND FAIS IN YAP STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 4 PM GUAM LST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 155 MILES EAST OF FAIS 220 MILES EAST OF ULITHI 320 MILES EAST OF YAP 375 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NGULU 290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND 425 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES TROPICAL STORM DURIAN JUST TO THE NORTH OF ULITHI MONDAY MORNING...AND NORTH OF YAP MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 4 PM POSITION...9.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 142.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 PM. $$ MCELROY ** WTPQ30 RJTD 260600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 260600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 260600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0621 DURIAN ANALYSIS POSITION 260600UTC 10.1N 142.7E MOVEMENT W 12KT PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 270600UTC 11.2N 138.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 280600UTC 12.4N 134.1E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT 72HR POSITION 290600UTC 13.5N 129.6E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 260600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS DURIAN 0622 (0621) INITIAL TIME 260600 UTC 00HR 10.1N 143.0E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 110KM P12HR W 20KM/H P+24HR 10.4N 138.5E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 11.2N 133.4E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 12.2N 127.8E 965HPA 40M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 260900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260600Z --- NEAR 9.7N 142.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.7N 142.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 10.5N 140.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 11.2N 137.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 11.7N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 12.3N 132.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 13.4N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 14.5N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 15.9N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT --- REMARKS: 260900Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 142.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 260939 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DURIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 8 PM GUAM LST SUN NOV 26 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN (24W) STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NGULU HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS IN YAP STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 135 MILES EAST OF FAIS 195 MILES EAST OF ULITHI 300 MILES EAST OF YAP 355 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NGULU 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND 425 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES TROPICAL STORM DURIAN NORTH OF ULITHI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND NORTH OF YAP LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION...9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 142.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM MONDAY MORNING. $$ MCELROY ** WTPQ20 RJTD 260900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0621 DURIAN (0621) ANALYSIS PSTN 260900UTC 10.1N 142.4E FAIR MOVE W 08KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 60NM FORECAST 24HF 270900UTC 11.4N 138.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 280600UTC 12.0N 133.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 69HF 290600UTC 13.1N 128.5E 220NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ81 PGUM 261112 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ171-261700- TROPICAL STORM DURIAN LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 9 PM GUAM LST SUN NOV 26 2006 ...TROPICAL STORM DURIAN STILL TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF YAP... NGULU...ULITHI AND FAIS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS IN YAP STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.5 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 135 MILES EAST OF FAIS 195 MILES EAST OF ULITHI AND 300 MILES EAST OF YAP. TROPICAL STORM DURIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. ...YAP... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS ON YOUR PROPERTY. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM THE LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IF TROPICAL STORM DURIAN FOLLOWS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST IN THE EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 15 MPH BY DAWN TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT 8 TO 10 FEET...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. ...ULITHI AND FAIS... EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER SHOULD BE ON HAND AND AVAILABLE. OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS SHOULD ALREADY BE STOWED. KEEP CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE. SMALL BOATS SHOULD STAY IN SAFE HAVENS. RESIDENTS SHOULD FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM THE LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH TONIGHT BECOMING NORTHWEST BY DAWN. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH MONDAY MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 MPH MONDAY EVENING BECOMING SOUTH 15 MPH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT 10 TO 12 FEET...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN SOME FLOODING IN LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM MONDAY MORNING GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ MCELROY