** WTPN31 PGTW 252100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 145.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 145.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 9.2N 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 9.8N 139.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 10.3N 137.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 10.7N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 12.1N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 8.7N 144.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF YAP (AND 280 NM SOUTH OF GUAM), HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION EAST THROUGH NORTH AS WELL AS GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. FURTHER ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TD 24W IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TD 24W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE LIMITED TO NOGAPS, WBAR, AND NCEP GFS BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 252154 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 800 AM GUAM LST SUN NOV 26 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W HAS FORMED SOUTH OF GUAM... AS OF 8 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR YAP... NGULU...ULITHI AND FAIS IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ONE OR MORE OF THESE LOCATIONS LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W UNTIL IT MOVES SAFELY WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 465 MILES EAST OF YAP 505 MILES EAST OF NGULU 370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI 305 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS 330 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM 445 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W VERY NEAR ULITHI EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF YAP LATE MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND 144.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 PM. $$ MIDDLEBROOKE ** WTPQ81 PGUM 252306 *** HLSPQ1 PMZ171-260500- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 900 AM GUAM LST SUN NOV 26 2006 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W HAS FORMED SOUTH OF GUAM... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF YAP... NGULU...ULITHI AND FAIS. ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR YAP...NGULU...ULITHI AND FAIS IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ONE OR MORE OF THESE LOCATIONS LATER TODAY. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 465 MILES EAST OF YAP 505 MILES EAST OF NGULU 370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI 305 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS 330 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM 445 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN. TROPICAL DFEPRESSION 24W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. ...YAP...NGULU...ULITHI AND FAIS... REVIEW YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN AND CHECK YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES OF FOOD AND WATER. SECURE OUTSIDE FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS ON YOUR PROPERTY. GATHER CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER STORAGE. MOVE SMALL BOATS TO SAFE HAVEN. ...WIND INFORMATION... TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION... SURF WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 FEET OR GREATER TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ...OTHER STORM EFFECTS... RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED. $$ ZIOBRO