** WTIN20 DEMS 240715 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH EAST AND ADJOINING EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 12.0 DEG N (.) ** WTPS11 NFFN 240600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 24/0733 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [975hPa] centre was located near 14.4S 162.9E at 240600 UTC. Position poor based on HRES MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 03 knots but expected to gradually turn southwest. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 65 knots decreasing to 50 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above 47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Cyclone rapidly weakening under strengthening shear. Convection warmed considerably past 4-8 hours. Outflow fair to south and poor elsewhere. Dvorak based on Shear pattern with DT yielding 3.0 MET=3.0 PAT =3.0. Final T =3.0, thus T3.0/4.0/W1.5/24hrs. A mid-level ridge to southeast is expected to steer Yani towards the southwest, into stronger shear and cooler SSTs. Global models generally agree on a southwest track. FORECAST: 12hrs valid 241800UTC near 15.3S 162.8E mov SSW at 05kt with 55kt close to centre. 24hrs valid 250600UTC near 16.2S 162.5E mov SSW at 05kt with 45kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid 251800UTC near 17.1S 161.9E mov SW at 06kt with 35kt close to centre. 48hrs valid 260600UTC near 17.9S 160.6E mov WSW at 07kt with 25kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 241400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 240600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 24/0733 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [975hPa] centre was located near 14.4S 162.9E at 240600 UTC. Position poor based on HRES MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 03 knots but expected to gradually turn southwest. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 65 knots decreasing to 50 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above 47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Cyclone rapidly weakening under strengthening shear. Convection warmed considerably past 4-8 hours. Outflow fair to south and poor elsewhere. Dvorak based on Shear pattern with DT yielding 3.0 MET=3.0 PAT =3.0. Final T =3.0, thus T3.0/4.0/W1.5/24hrs. A mid-level ridge to southeast is expected to steer Yani towards the southwest, into stronger shear and cooler SSTs. Global models generally agree on a southwest track. FORECAST: 12hrs valid 241800UTC near 15.3S 162.8E mov SSW at 05kt with 55kt close to centre. 24hrs valid 250600UTC near 16.2S 162.5E mov SSW at 05kt with 45kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid 251800UTC near 17.1S 161.9E mov SW at 06kt with 35kt close to centre. 48hrs valid 260600UTC near 17.9S 160.6E mov WSW at 07kt with 25kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 241400 UTC. ** WTNC01 NWBB 240811 *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 011. B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 24/11/06 A 07:50 UTC. C: A 06:00 UTC LE 24/11/06, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "YANI" : - CENTREE PAR 14,4 SUD 163,1 EST. POSITION BONNE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA. - DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-OUEST 02 NOEUDS. D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 50 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 75 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 30 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 60 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 60 ET 120 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: "YANI" A FAIBLI ET EST DEVENUE DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE. ELLES POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD-SUD-OUEST, QU'ELLES CONSERVERA DANS LES 24 HEURES A VENIR. F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 24/11/06 A 1200 UTC : 14,6 SUD 163,0 EST. LE 24/11/06 A 1800 UTC : 15,1 SUD 162,9 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 0000 UTC : 15,5 SUD 162,8 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 0600 UTC : 15,9 SUD 162,5 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 1200 UTC : 16,2 SUD 162,3 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 1800 UTC : 16,6 SUD 162,0 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 24/11/06 A 15:00 UTC.= ** WTNC01 NWBB 240811 *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 011. B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 24/11/06 A 07:50 UTC. C: A 06:00 UTC LE 24/11/06, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "YANI" : - CENTREE PAR 14,4 SUD 163,1 EST. POSITION BONNE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA. - DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-OUEST 02 NOEUDS. D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 50 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 75 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 30 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 60 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 60 ET 120 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: "YANI" A FAIBLI ET EST DEVENUE DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE. ELLES POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD-SUD-OUEST, QU'ELLES CONSERVERA DANS LES 24 HEURES A VENIR. F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 24/11/06 A 1200 UTC : 14,6 SUD 163,0 EST. LE 24/11/06 A 1800 UTC : 15,1 SUD 162,9 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 0000 UTC : 15,5 SUD 162,8 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 0600 UTC : 15,9 SUD 162,5 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 1200 UTC : 16,2 SUD 162,3 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 1800 UTC : 16,6 SUD 162,0 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 24/11/06 A 15:00 UTC.= ** WTNC01 NWBB 240815 CCA *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 012. B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 24/11/06 A 08:10 UTC. ATTENTION : CECI EST LE CORRECTIF DU BMS MARINE N011. C: A 06:00 UTC LE 24/11/06, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "YANI" : - CENTREE PAR 14,4 SUD 163,1 EST. POSITION BONNE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA. - DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-OUEST 02 NOEUDS. D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 50 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 75 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 30 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 60 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 60 ET 120 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: CORRECTIF DU PRECEDENT BULLETIN BMS MARINE : E: "YANI" A FAIBLI ET EST DEVENUE DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE. ELLE POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD-SUD-OUEST, QU'ELLE CONSERVERA DANS LES 24 HEURES A VENIR. F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 24/11/06 A 1200 UTC : 14,6 SUD 163,0 EST. LE 24/11/06 A 1800 UTC : 15,1 SUD 162,9 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 0000 UTC : 15,5 SUD 162,8 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 0600 UTC : 15,9 SUD 162,5 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 1200 UTC : 16,2 SUD 162,3 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 1800 UTC : 16,6 SUD 162,0 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 24/11/06 A 15:00 UTC.= ** WTNC01 NWBB 240815 CCA *** A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 012. B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 24/11/06 A 08:10 UTC. ATTENTION : CECI EST LE CORRECTIF DU BMS MARINE N011. C: A 06:00 UTC LE 24/11/06, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "YANI" : - CENTREE PAR 14,4 SUD 163,1 EST. POSITION BONNE. - PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA. - DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-OUEST 02 NOEUDS. D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 50 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 75 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 30 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 60 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 60 ET 120 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. E: CORRECTIF DU PRECEDENT BULLETIN BMS MARINE : E: "YANI" A FAIBLI ET EST DEVENUE DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE. ELLE POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE AU SUD-SUD-OUEST, QU'ELLE CONSERVERA DANS LES 24 HEURES A VENIR. F: POSITIONS PREVUES : LE 24/11/06 A 1200 UTC : 14,6 SUD 163,0 EST. LE 24/11/06 A 1800 UTC : 15,1 SUD 162,9 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 0000 UTC : 15,5 SUD 162,8 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 0600 UTC : 15,9 SUD 162,5 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 1200 UTC : 16,2 SUD 162,3 EST. LE 25/11/06 A 1800 UTC : 16,6 SUD 162,0 EST. PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 24/11/06 A 15:00 UTC.= ** WTNC02 NWBB 240820 CCA *** A: SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY NUMBER 012. B: STORM WARNING ISSUED THE 06/11/24 08:10 UTC. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY NUMBER 011. C: TROPICAL CYCLONE "YANI" LOCATED 14,4 S 163,1 E AT 240600. - POSITION GOOD. - CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 975 HPA. - TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 02 KT. D: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KT (GUSTS 75 KT) WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 46 KT (GUSTS 69 KT) WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 33 KT (GUSTS 50 KT) BETWEEN 60 AND 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. E: CORRECTIF DU PRECEDENT BULLETIN BMS MARINE : E: "YANI" WEAKENED AND REACHED THE STORM STAGE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH SOUTH-WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. F: FORECAST : THE 06/11/24 1200 UTC : 14,6 S 163,0 E. THE 06/11/24 1800 UTC : 15,1 S 162,9 E. THE 06/11/25 0000 UTC : 15,5 S 162,8 E. THE 06/11/25 0600 UTC : 15,9 S 162,5 E. THE 06/11/25 1200 UTC : 16,2 S 162,3 E. THE 06/11/25 1800 UTC : 16,6 S 162,0 E. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED THE 241500 UTC.= ** WTNC02 NWBB 240820 CCA *** A: SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY NUMBER 012. B: STORM WARNING ISSUED THE 06/11/24 08:10 UTC. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER ADVISORY NUMBER 011. C: TROPICAL CYCLONE "YANI" LOCATED 14,4 S 163,1 E AT 240600. - POSITION GOOD. - CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 975 HPA. - TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 02 KT. D: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KT (GUSTS 75 KT) WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 46 KT (GUSTS 69 KT) WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. WINDS ABOVE UP TO 33 KT (GUSTS 50 KT) BETWEEN 60 AND 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER. E: CORRECTIF DU PRECEDENT BULLETIN BMS MARINE : E: "YANI" WEAKENED AND REACHED THE STORM STAGE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH SOUTH-WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. F: FORECAST : THE 06/11/24 1200 UTC : 14,6 S 163,0 E. THE 06/11/24 1800 UTC : 15,1 S 162,9 E. THE 06/11/25 0000 UTC : 15,5 S 162,8 E. THE 06/11/25 0600 UTC : 15,9 S 162,5 E. THE 06/11/25 1200 UTC : 16,2 S 162,3 E. THE 06/11/25 1800 UTC : 16,6 S 162,0 E. NEXT WARNING WILL BE ISSUED THE 241500 UTC.=