** WTPS11 NFFN 231800     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 23/1957 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [960hPa] centre was located near
13.8S 163.0E at 231800 UTC. Position good based on HRES MTSAT EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but
expected to gradually turn south-southwest. Maximum 10-minute average
winds estimated at 75 knots increasing to 85 knots in the next 24
hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above
47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within
120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90
miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. 

Organisation steady past 6 hours. Ragged cloud-filled eye still
clearly evident on EIR imagery.  Outflow good to south and fair
elsewhere. Dvorak based on Embedded centre pattern with W surround
yielding DT5.0. MET and and PAT at 4.5. Final T based on DT thus
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone lies underneath a 250-hPa ridge axis in
a divergent region. Shear gradually increasing over system. SST
around 28-29C. A mid-level anticyclone to the east with an associated
ridge extending southwest is expected to steer Yani towards the
south-southwest. This will bring the cyclone into a region of
stronger shear and cooler SSTs. Global models generally agree on a
south-southwest track with gradual intensification only in the short
term. 

FORECAST:
12hrs valid 240600UTC near 14.5S 162.7E mov SSW at 04kt with 75kt
close to centre.  
24hrs valid 241800UTC near 15.2S 162.4E mov SSW at 04kt with 85kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 250600UTC near 16.1S 162.0E mov SSW at 04kt with 75kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 251800UTC near 17.3S 161.5E mov SSW at 05kt with 60kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 240200 UTC. 


** WTPS11 NFFN 231800 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 23/1957 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [960hPa] centre was located near
13.8S 163.0E at 231800 UTC. Position good based on HRES MTSAT EIR
imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but
expected to gradually turn south-southwest. Maximum 10-minute average
winds estimated at 75 knots increasing to 85 knots in the next 24
hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above
47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within
120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90
miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. 

Organisation steady past 6 hours. Ragged cloud-filled eye still
clearly evident on EIR imagery.  Outflow good to south and fair
elsewhere. Dvorak based on Embedded centre pattern with W surround
yielding DT5.0. MET and and PAT at 4.5. Final T based on DT thus
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone lies underneath a 250-hPa ridge axis in
a divergent region. Shear gradually increasing over system. SST
around 28-29C. A mid-level anticyclone to the east with an associated
ridge extending southwest is expected to steer Yani towards the
south-southwest. This will bring the cyclone into a region of
stronger shear and cooler SSTs. Global models generally agree on a
south-southwest track with gradual intensification only in the short
term. 

FORECAST:
12hrs valid 240600UTC near 14.5S 162.7E mov SSW at 04kt with 75kt
close to centre.  
24hrs valid 241800UTC near 15.2S 162.4E mov SSW at 04kt with 85kt
close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid 250600UTC near 16.1S 162.0E mov SSW at 04kt with 75kt
close to centre.
48hrs valid 251800UTC near 17.3S 161.5E mov SSW at 05kt with 60kt
close to centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued
around 240200 UTC.