** WTSR20 WSSS 230600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS11 NFFN 231200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 23/1400 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [960hPa] centre was located near 13.6S 162.9E at 231200 UTC. Position good based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but expected to turn towards southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 75 knots increasing to 85 knots in the next 24 hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above 47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Organisation steadily increasing with cold cloud tops becoming more organised around LLCC. Ragged eye is clearly evident on EIR imagery. Outflow fair to good in most quadrants. Dvorak based on Eye Pattern yielding 5.0 with a white eye [-1.0] with white surrounds [E6.0]. This yields a DT=5.0, MET=4.5 and PAT=4.5. Final T based on DT thus T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone lies underneath a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent and weak-shear region. SST around 28-29C. Yani currently steered south by a poleward oriented mid-high level ridge pushing from the east but is however expected to eventually drift west under strong mid level ridge to south. Global models generally agree on a southwestward track with gradual intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid 240000UTC near 14.8S 163.0E mov S at 06kt with 80kt close to centre. 24hrs valid 241200UTC near 15.3S 162.7E mov SSW at 04kt with 85kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid 250000UTC near 16.1S 162.1E mov SW at 05kt with 90kt close to centre. 48hrs valid 251200UTC near 16.9S 161.3E mov SW at 06kt with 90kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 232000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 231200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 23/1400 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [960hPa] centre was located near 13.6S 162.9E at 231200 UTC. Position good based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but expected to turn towards southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 75 knots increasing to 85 knots in the next 24 hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above 47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Organisation steadily increasing with cold cloud tops becoming more organised around LLCC. Ragged eye is clearly evident on EIR imagery. Outflow fair to good in most quadrants. Dvorak based on Eye Pattern yielding 5.0 with a white eye [-1.0] with white surrounds [E6.0]. This yields a DT=5.0, MET=4.5 and PAT=4.5. Final T based on DT thus T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24hrs. Cyclone lies underneath a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent and weak-shear region. SST around 28-29C. Yani currently steered south by a poleward oriented mid-high level ridge pushing from the east but is however expected to eventually drift west under strong mid level ridge to south. Global models generally agree on a southwestward track with gradual intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid 240000UTC near 14.8S 163.0E mov S at 06kt with 80kt close to centre. 24hrs valid 241200UTC near 15.3S 162.7E mov SSW at 04kt with 85kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid 250000UTC near 16.1S 162.1E mov SW at 05kt with 90kt close to centre. 48hrs valid 251200UTC near 16.9S 161.3E mov SW at 06kt with 90kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 232000 UTC. ** WTPS31 PGTW 231500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (YANI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 13.6S 162.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 162.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 14.4S 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 15.2S 162.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 16.2S 162.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 17.4S 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 162.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (YANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH- EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 02P HAS BEGUN TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AN APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGING ON THE WESTERN PERI- PHERY OF TC 02P, BUT WILL QUICKLY FILL AND MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING THE SYSTEM FROM SPEEDING UP RAPIDLY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS REASONING AND THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. AS TC 02P CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IT WILL KEEP TRACKING INTO A HIGHER VER- TICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. INTENSIFICATION WILL REMAIN AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DUE TO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST IF THE APPROACHING TROUGH CAUSES INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.// BT #0001 ** WTNT80 EGRR 231715 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.11.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 231715