** WTNT80 EGRR 230600 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.11.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 230600 ** WTIN20 DEMS 230700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 12.0 DEG N (.) ** WTPS11 NFFN 230600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 23/0738 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [965hPa] centre was located near 13.1S 163.0E at 230600 UTC. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS/EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but expected to turn towards southwest in the next 12 to 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 70 knots increasing to 80 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above 47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Organisation steadily increasing. Ragged eye is again becoming cloud filled on both EIR and VIS imageries. Outflow good to south and west and fair elsewhere. Dvorak based on Eye Pattern yielding 5.0 with a white eye with black surrounds. This yields a DT=5.0, MET=5.0 and PAT=4.5. Final T based on PT thus T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone lies just south of a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent and weak-shear region. SST around 28-29C. Yani currently steered south by a mid-level ridge pushing from the east but is however expected to eventually drift west under strong mid level ridge to south. Global models generally agree on a southwestward track with gradual intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid 231800UTC near 14.0S 162.7E mov SSW at 05kt with 75kt close to centre. 24hrs valid 240600UTC near 14.5S 162.1E mov SW at 05kt with 80kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid 241800UTC near 14.8S 161.2E mov WSW at 05kt with 85kt close to centre. 48hrs valid 250600UTC near 15.3S 160.0E mov WSW at 06kt with 85kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 231400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 230600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 23/0738 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [CAT 3] 04F [965hPa] centre was located near 13.1S 163.0E at 230600 UTC. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS/EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south about 04 knots but expected to turn towards southwest in the next 12 to 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 70 knots increasing to 80 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Winds over 63 knots within 30 miles of centre, and winds above 47 knots within 50 miles of centre, and winds above 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 90 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle. Organisation steadily increasing. Ragged eye is again becoming cloud filled on both EIR and VIS imageries. Outflow good to south and west and fair elsewhere. Dvorak based on Eye Pattern yielding 5.0 with a white eye with black surrounds. This yields a DT=5.0, MET=5.0 and PAT=4.5. Final T based on PT thus T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone lies just south of a 250-hPa ridge axis in a divergent and weak-shear region. SST around 28-29C. Yani currently steered south by a mid-level ridge pushing from the east but is however expected to eventually drift west under strong mid level ridge to south. Global models generally agree on a southwestward track with gradual intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid 231800UTC near 14.0S 162.7E mov SSW at 05kt with 75kt close to centre. 24hrs valid 240600UTC near 14.5S 162.1E mov SW at 05kt with 80kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid 241800UTC near 14.8S 161.2E mov WSW at 05kt with 85kt close to centre. 48hrs valid 250600UTC near 15.3S 160.0E mov WSW at 06kt with 85kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 231400 UTC.