** WTSR20 WSSS 220600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS01 NFFN 221200 *** STORM Warning 013 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 22/1313 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [987hPa] centre was located near 12.7 South 162.6 East at 221200 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 12.7S 162.6E at 221200 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 03 knots but expected to gradually turn west. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern semicircle, increasing to 50 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Forecast position near 12.9S 162.5E at 230000 UTC and near 13.4S 161.7E at 231200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 012. ** WTPS01 NFFN 221200 *** STORM Warning 013 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 22/1313 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [987hPa] centre was located near 12.7 South 162.6 East at 221200 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 12.7S 162.6E at 221200 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 03 knots but expected to gradually turn west. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern semicircle, increasing to 50 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Forecast position near 12.9S 162.5E at 230000 UTC and near 13.4S 161.7E at 231200 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 012. ** WTPS11 NFFN 221200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 22/1402 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI 04F [987hPa] centre was located near 12.6S 162.6E at 221200 UTC moving south-southeast about 03 knots but expected to gradually turn west. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 45 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern semicircle increasing to 50 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation steadily increasing with primary band wrapping tightly around llcc. Outflow good to south and west but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.7 on log10 spiral yielding DT=3, MET agrees, PAT=3.5. Final T based on DT thus T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24hrs. Cyclone is located just south of a 250-hPa ridge axis in a region of weak shear. SST around 28-29C. Global models forecast track varies significantly but agrees on general westard movement. Consensus based on JMA, Bracknell and TCLAPS. A strong anti-cyclone to the south of the system at middle levels is expected to steer YANI westards. FORECAST: 12hrs valid 230000UTC near 12.9S 162.5E mov SSW at 02kt with 45kt close to centre. 24hrs valid 231200UTC near 13.4S 161.7E mov SW at 03kt with 50kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid 240000UTC near 13.0S 160.4E mov WSW at 03kt with 50kt close to centre. 48hrs valid 241200UTC near 13.3S 159.8E mov W at 03kt with 55kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 222000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 221200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 22/1402 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI 04F [987hPa] centre was located near 12.6S 162.6E at 221200 UTC moving south-southeast about 03 knots but expected to gradually turn west. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 45 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern semicircle increasing to 50 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation steadily increasing with primary band wrapping tightly around llcc. Outflow good to south and west but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.7 on log10 spiral yielding DT=3, MET agrees, PAT=3.5. Final T based on DT thus T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24hrs. Cyclone is located just south of a 250-hPa ridge axis in a region of weak shear. SST around 28-29C. Global models forecast track varies significantly but agrees on general westard movement. Consensus based on JMA, Bracknell and TCLAPS. A strong anti-cyclone to the south of the system at middle levels is expected to steer YANI westards. FORECAST: 12hrs valid 230000UTC near 12.9S 162.5E mov SSW at 02kt with 45kt close to centre. 24hrs valid 231200UTC near 13.4S 161.7E mov SW at 03kt with 50kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid 240000UTC near 13.0S 160.4E mov WSW at 03kt with 50kt close to centre. 48hrs valid 241200UTC near 13.3S 159.8E mov W at 03kt with 55kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 222000 UTC. ** WTPS31 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (YANI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 162.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 162.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 13.1S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 13.6S 162.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 14.2S 162.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 15.0S 162.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 162.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z. // ** WTPS31 PGTW 221500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (YANI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 162.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 162.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 13.1S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 13.6S 162.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 14.2S 162.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 15.0S 162.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 162.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02P (YANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SOUTHERLY MOTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED TC 02P IS IN THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS DEPICTS VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CORAL SEA. THIS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 02P, RANGING FROM DUE WESTWARD RUNNERS TO RAPID TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUPS FAVORS A CLIMATOLOGICAL SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS PLACED ON THE ATYPICAL WESTWARD TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z. // ** WTNT80 EGRR 221643 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.11.2006 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221643