** WTNT80 EGRR 220625 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.11.2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 113.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.11.2006 15.9N 113.4W WEAK 12UTC 22.11.2006 14.9N 115.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 220625 ** WTIN20 DEMS 220625 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 22-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EAST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA AND OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER COMMORIAN AND MALDIVES AREA AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL,SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 10.0 DEG N (.) ** WTPS01 NFFN 220600 *** GALE Warning 012 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 22/0712 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [990hPa] centre was located near 12.6 South 162.3 East at 220600 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 12.6S 162.3E at 220600 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southwest at about 04 knots but expected to gradually turn westwards. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern semicircle, increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Forecast position near 12.6S 161.9E at 221800 UTC and near 13.0S 161.5E at 230600 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 011. ** WTPS01 NFFN 220600 *** GALE Warning 012 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 22/0712 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI [990hPa] centre was located near 12.6 South 162.3 East at 220600 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 12.6S 162.3E at 220600 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southwest at about 04 knots but expected to gradually turn westwards. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern semicircle, increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Forecast position near 12.6S 161.9E at 221800 UTC and near 13.0S 161.5E at 230600 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 011. ** WTPS11 NFFN 220600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 22/0808 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI 04F [990hPa] centre was located near 12.6S 162.3E at 220600 UTC moving south-southwest about 04 knots but expected to gradually turn westwards. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern semicircle increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation steadily increasing with primary band wrapping tightly around llcc. Outflow good to south and west but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.6 on log10 spiral thus T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24hrs. Cyclone is located just south of a 250-hPa rige axis in a region of weak shear. SST around 28-29C. Global models agrees on general westard movement. Consensus based on JMA, Bracknell and TCLAPS. A strong anti-cyclone to the south of the system at middle level is expected to steer YANI westards. FORECAST: 12hrs valid 221800UTC near 12.6S 161.9E mov W at 02kt with 40kt close to centre. 24hrs valid 230600UTC near 13.0S 161.5E mov WSW at 02kt with 45kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid 231800UTC near 13.0S 160.4E mov WSW at 03kt with 50kt close to centre. 48hrs valid 240600UTC near 13.3S 159.8E mov WSW at 03kt with 55kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 221400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 220600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 22/0808 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone YANI 04F [990hPa] centre was located near 12.6S 162.3E at 220600 UTC moving south-southwest about 04 knots but expected to gradually turn westwards. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle and within 60 miles of centre in the northern semicircle increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation steadily increasing with primary band wrapping tightly around llcc. Outflow good to south and west but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.6 on log10 spiral thus T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24hrs. Cyclone is located just south of a 250-hPa rige axis in a region of weak shear. SST around 28-29C. Global models agrees on general westard movement. Consensus based on JMA, Bracknell and TCLAPS. A strong anti-cyclone to the south of the system at middle level is expected to steer YANI westards. FORECAST: 12hrs valid 221800UTC near 12.6S 161.9E mov W at 02kt with 40kt close to centre. 24hrs valid 230600UTC near 13.0S 161.5E mov WSW at 02kt with 45kt close to centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid 231800UTC near 13.0S 160.4E mov WSW at 03kt with 50kt close to centre. 48hrs valid 240600UTC near 13.3S 159.8E mov WSW at 03kt with 55kt close to centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC YANI will be issued around 221400 UTC.