** WTPS11 NFFN 212100 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 21/2237 UTC 2006 UTC. Topical Depression 04F [997hPa] centre was located near 12.0S 162.1E at 212100 UTC moving southeast about 3 knots. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Overall organisation increased significantly past 12 hours. Convection erupted last night with tops cooling markedly. The two primary bands have now virtually merged into one and wrapping around the llcc. However, some warming observed past 4 hours and appears to continue. 04F is located just south of a 250hPa rige axis in a region of 5-10kt shear.SST around 28-29C. Depression expected to drift slowly southeast further before turning southwest under a north to northeast steering regime. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD04F will be issued around 220200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 212100 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 21/2237 UTC 2006 UTC. Topical Depression 04F [997hPa] centre was located near 12.0S 162.1E at 212100 UTC moving southeast about 3 knots. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Overall organisation increased significantly past 12 hours. Convection erupted last night with tops cooling markedly. The two primary bands have now virtually merged into one and wrapping around the llcc. However, some warming observed past 4 hours and appears to continue. 04F is located just south of a 250hPa rige axis in a region of 5-10kt shear.SST around 28-29C. Depression expected to drift slowly southeast further before turning southwest under a north to northeast steering regime. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD04F will be issued around 220200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 212100 CCA *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 21/2348 UTC 2006 UTC. Corrected version..Dvorak included. Tropical Depression 04F [997hPa] centre was located near 12.0S 162.1E at 212100 UTC moving southeast about 3 knots. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Overall organisation increased significantly past 12 hours. Convection erupted last night with tops cooling markedly. The two primary bands have now virtually merged into one and wrapping around the llcc. However, some warming observed past 4 hours and appears to continue. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral thus T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24hrs. 04F is located just south of a 250hPa rige axis in a region of 5-10kt shear.SST around 28-29C. Depression expected to drift slowly southeast further before turning southwest under a north to northeast steering regime. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD04F will be issued around 220200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 212100 CCA *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 21/2348 UTC 2006 UTC. Corrected version..Dvorak included. Tropical Depression 04F [997hPa] centre was located near 12.0S 162.1E at 212100 UTC moving southeast about 3 knots. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Overall organisation increased significantly past 12 hours. Convection erupted last night with tops cooling markedly. The two primary bands have now virtually merged into one and wrapping around the llcc. However, some warming observed past 4 hours and appears to continue. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral thus T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24hrs. 04F is located just south of a 250hPa rige axis in a region of 5-10kt shear.SST around 28-29C. Depression expected to drift slowly southeast further before turning southwest under a north to northeast steering regime. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD04F will be issued around 220200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 212100 CCA *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 21/2348 UTC 2006 UTC. Corrected version..Dvorak included. Tropical Depression 04F [997hPa] centre was located near 12.0S 162.1E at 212100 UTC moving southeast about 3 knots. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Overall organisation increased significantly past 12 hours. Convection erupted last night with tops cooling markedly. The two primary bands have now virtually merged into one and wrapping around the llcc. However, some warming observed past 4 hours and appears to continue. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral thus T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24hrs. 04F is located just south of a 250hPa rige axis in a region of 5-10kt shear.SST around 28-29C. Depression expected to drift slowly southeast further before turning southwest under a north to northeast steering regime. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD04F will be issued around 220200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 212100 CCA *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Nov 21/2348 UTC 2006 UTC. Corrected version..Dvorak included. Tropical Depression 04F [997hPa] centre was located near 12.0S 162.1E at 212100 UTC moving southeast about 3 knots. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours. Overall organisation increased significantly past 12 hours. Convection erupted last night with tops cooling markedly. The two primary bands have now virtually merged into one and wrapping around the llcc. However, some warming observed past 4 hours and appears to continue. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral thus T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24hrs. 04F is located just south of a 250hPa rige axis in a region of 5-10kt shear.SST around 28-29C. Depression expected to drift slowly southeast further before turning southwest under a north to northeast steering regime. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD04F will be issued around 220200 UTC.