** WTNT80 EGRR 201822 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.11.2006 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 106.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.11.2006 14.6N 106.7W WEAK 00UTC 21.11.2006 15.6N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.11.2006 15.3N 108.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.11.2006 16.0N 110.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.11.2006 16.0N 111.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.11.2006 17.1N 114.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201822 ** WTPZ41 KNHC 202033 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST MON NOV 20 2006 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE SERGIO HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF CONVERGENCE LINES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...SERGIO NO LONGER HAS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR A WELL- DEFINED CENTER...WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED AT THE EASTERN END OF A TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON SERGIO UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF SERGIO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. WITH RESPECT TO STATISTICS...SERGIO IS THE LONGEST RUNNING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR NOVEMBER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 14.9N 108.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 15.0N 108.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 21/1800Z 15.3N 110.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/0600Z 15.5N 111.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPZ21 KNHC 202035 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 2100 UTC MON NOV 20 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.0N 108.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 110.3W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.5N 111.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 108.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SERGIO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF SERGIO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPN31 PHNC 202200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 14.9N 108.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 108.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 15.0N 108.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.3N 110.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 15.5N 111.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 201800Z 14.9N 108.0W. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME- TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 11 FEET. // BT #0001