** WTSR20 WSSS 200600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 201440 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1500 UTC MON NOV 20 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 107.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 107.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.1N 107.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.4N 109.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.8N 110.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.0N 112.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPZ41 KNHC 201447 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST MON NOV 20 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PULSATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF SERGIO. THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE CYCLONE'S CENTER YIELDED 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM SAB. SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION HAS PULLED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER ONCE AGAIN. EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN AND PROVIDES LITTLE ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE IN DISCERNING THE CENTER. MY FIRST INCLINATION WAS TO BRING SERGIO BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM... HOWEVER DUE TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION AND LACK OF AN ORGANIZED CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUT BE SOMEWHAT MORE RELAXED. EVEN IF THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS INDICATED BY THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS MODEL...WHICH REDUCES THE AREA THAT COMPUTES THE SHEAR...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE CIRCULATION TO RE-CONSOLIDATE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/3. SERGIO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND THE LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WEST OF SERGIO...SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT SERGIO WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLOWER. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME EVEN FURTHER DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION THAN INDICATED...BUT I WILL WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY TO DETERMINE IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES... SUCH AS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM SOONER THAN INDICATED...ARE WARRANTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 14.9N 107.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 15.1N 107.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 15.4N 109.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 15.8N 110.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1200Z 16.0N 112.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPN31 PHNC 201600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 107.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 107.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.1N 107.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.4N 109.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 15.8N 110.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 16.0N 112.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 201200Z 14.8N 106.8W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z. // BT #0001