** WTPZ21 KNHC 200842 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0900 UTC MON NOV 20 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.8N 107.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.9N 108.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.1N 109.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.4N 110.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 106.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ41 KNHC 200846 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 AM PST MON NOV 20 2006 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST...BUT JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO YIELD DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 2.0 AT 0600 UTC. VERY RECENTLY A LITTLE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0122 UTC SHOWED A FEW 30-KT VECTORS NEAR THE CENTER AND STRONGER BUT RAIN-INFLATED VECTORS IN THE CONVECTION. THESE DATA SUPPORT KEEPING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 30 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN ACCORDANCE WILL ALL INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SERGIO TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONLY ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS...BUT ONE CANNOT BE SURE JUST HOW STUBBORN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN GIVING UP ITS DEEP CONVECTION. IT HAS NOT BEEN HARD TO FIND THE CENTER...WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING ABOUT 250/4 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT PERHAPS MORE WESTERLY THAN THAT RECENTLY. AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A GENERAL SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS PRESUMING THE REMNANT LOW WILL NO LONGER BE HINDERED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES PUSHING AGAINST THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLING FOR DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 14.8N 106.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 14.8N 107.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 14.9N 108.1W 25 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 15.1N 109.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/0600Z 15.4N 110.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPN31 PHNC 200400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 026 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 21E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 15.0N 106.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 106.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.9N 106.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.0N 107.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 15.3N 108.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 15.6N 110.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 200300Z 15.0N 106.4W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 12 FEET. AT 112000 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 269 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201000Z, 201600Z, 202200Z AND 210400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 201000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 106.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 106.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.8N 107.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 14.9N 108.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.1N 109.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 15.4N 110.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 200600Z 14.8N 106.5W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 10 FEET. AT 112006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED 287 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.//