** WTSR20 WSSS 191800 ***
NO STORM WARNING=


** WTPZ41 KNHC 200231 ***
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
700 PM PST SUN NOV 19 2006

DEEP CONVECTION COMES AND GOES IN SPORADIC DISORGANIZED BURSTS...BUT
RECENTLY THESE BURSTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER.  THERE IS STILL A WELL-DEFINED...MOSTLY EXPOSED...
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO.  GIVEN THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS NOT PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS IT IS ASSUMED THE CYCLONE HAS SPUN DOWN TO BELOW TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY.   THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
OUTPUT FROM THE OPERATIONAL SHIPS MODEL SHOWS 30-35 KT OF 850-200
MB VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING SERGIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. 
THIS IS PROBABLY AN OVERESTIMATE OF THE SHEAR THAT WILL DIRECTLY
IMPACT THE SYSTEM...SINCE IT IS AN AVERAGE OVER A LARGE AREA THAT
INCLUDES EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO.   
HOWEVER EVEN THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS OUTPUT...WHICH IS BASED ON THE
SHEAR AVERAGED OVER A SMALLER AREA OVER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SHOWS MORE THAN 25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 
THIS ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
WEAKENING...AND SERGIO COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED BY
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THE FLOW SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. 
THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE WEAKENING TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT IS PREDICTED TO TURN TO THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST....BUT NOT AS FAST AS
INDICATED BY THE MEDIUM TO SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 15.0N 106.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N 107.7W    25 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 15.3N 108.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.6N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 


** WTPZ21 KNHC 200231 ***
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006
0300 UTC MON NOV 20 2006
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 106.4W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 106.4W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 106.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.0N 107.7W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.3N 108.8W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.6N 110.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 106.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 


** WTNT80 EGRR 200518 ***

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.11.2006

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 106.0W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 20.11.2006  15.0N 106.0W     WEAK
 12UTC 20.11.2006  14.9N 107.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 21.11.2006  15.9N 108.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2006  17.0N 111.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.11.2006  17.3N 112.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 22.11.2006     BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    
 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 200518


** WTIN20 DEMS 200607 ***

            TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
            ------------------------
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 20-11-2006 (.) 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE 
BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA )  VALID  FOR  NEXT 24 
HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.)
 
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN  OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST
ARABIAN SEA, SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA(.)
RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH
13.0 DEG.N (.)

MSG OVER ?????/