** WTPZ41 KNHC 192029 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 PM PST SUN NOV 19 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SERGIO AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE T2.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND T2.0 FROM SAB. AS A RESULT OF THE NEW CONVECTIVE BURST...SERGIO WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AND WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED IN 48 HOURS OR SO...CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/3. SERGIO IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-RIDGE WHICH HAS PUSHED THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF DAY. AS A RESULT OF THIS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LESS SHEAR WHICH PROBABLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPINGED BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO BE STEERED ON A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GFDL AS WELL AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.1N 105.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 15.2N 106.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 15.4N 107.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 21/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPZ21 KNHC 192029 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 2100 UTC SUN NOV 19 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.2N 106.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.4N 107.9W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI