** WTSR20 WSSS 190600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 191429 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST SUN NOV 19 2006 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF SERGIO REMAINS EXPOSED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS AROUND 75 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERNS FROM 1200 UTC REMAIN AT T3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE PICTURES INDICATE THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME FURTHER DETACHED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH STILL COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS...FROM 1254 UTC...INDICATED 30-40 KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SOME OF WHICH ARE PROBABLY OVERINFLATED DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/3. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE HAMPERING THE CYCLONE'S FORWARD MOTION. AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY TO THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE PULLED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS. THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSSE. HOWEVER...BASED UPON THE CURRENT SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 15.3N 105.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 15.4N 105.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 15.6N 106.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 15.8N 107.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 21/1200Z 16.0N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTPZ21 KNHC 191430 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1500 UTC SUN NOV 19 2006 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 105.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 105.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.4N 105.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.6N 106.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 107.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 108.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 105.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI ** WTNT80 EGRR 191735 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.11.2006 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 105.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.11.2006 15.3N 105.9W WEAK 00UTC 20.11.2006 15.1N 106.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2006 14.9N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.11.2006 15.9N 108.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2006 16.5N 111.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.11.2006 17.4N 113.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGHT THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191735