** WTIN20 DEMS 190727 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 19-11-2006 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ARABIAN SEA, PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA OVER THE INDIAN REGION PASSES THROUGH 13.0 DEG.N (.) MSG OVER ?????/ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 190843 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0900 UTC SUN NOV 19 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 105.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 105.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.7N 105.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.8N 106.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.9N 107.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.5N 111.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 105.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPZ41 KNHC 190853 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 100 AM PST SUN NOV 19 2006 SERGIO REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE RISEN TO 3.0... CORRESPONDING TO 45 KT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE INCREASE IN COLD CLOUD TOPS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO AN EXPANDING CIRRUS CANOPY AND NOT TO ANY SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. WEAKENING REMAINS THE EXPECTATION SINCE THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 CELSIUS...HOWEVER...SO SERGIO WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE TO THE NORTHWEST OF SERGIO...WHICH IS TRYING TO FORCE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE IMPEDING THAT MOTION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 2 KT. DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO NOT MOVE MUCH...SO THE MOTION OF SERGIO DURING THAT PERIOD WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION IT MAINTAINS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES HAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND CALLS FOR A CONTINUED CRAWL TO THE WEST THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER IT IS ASSUMED THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE DECREASED AND THE WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED A LITTLE FASTER BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD. SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST HINGES SO MUCH ON HOW LONG THE CONVECTION HANGS ON...AND SINCE THERE IS SUCH DISPARITY IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 15.6N 105.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 15.7N 105.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 15.8N 106.3W 30 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 15.9N 107.2W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 16.2N 108.5W 25 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 16.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KNABB ** WTPN31 PHNC 191000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 105.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 105.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.7N 105.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.8N 106.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.9N 107.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.2N 108.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.5N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 190900Z 15.6N 105.2W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 14 FEET. AT 111906 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 314 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z.//