** WTSR20 WSSS 181800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 190207 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0300 UTC SUN NOV 19 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 104.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.1N 105.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 25SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.8N 107.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.1N 109.1W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 111.6W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 105.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPZ41 KNHC 190225 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 PM PST SAT NOV 18 2006 AFTER A BRIEF WANE IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...A NEW SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF T3.0 AND T2.5 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/05 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THAT OF THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPEDING THE WESTWARD MOTION SOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 30 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. WITH SERGIO REMAINING OVER 29C SSTS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS AND EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB TO THE EFFECTS OF HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 15.7N 105.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.1N 105.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 106.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 16.8N 107.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 17.1N 109.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 111.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART ** WTPN31 PHNC 190400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (SERGIO) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 104.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 104.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.1N 105.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.5N 106.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 16.8N 107.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.1N 109.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 17.5N 111.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: POSITION AT 190300Z 15.7N 105.1W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 14 FEET. AT 111900 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED 307 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 190508 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.11.2006 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 104.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.11.2006 15.9N 104.9W WEAK 12UTC 19.11.2006 15.6N 106.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2006 15.6N 106.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2006 16.8N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.11.2006 18.1N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.11.2006 18.5N 112.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.11.2006 19.4N 113.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.11.2006 20.0N 114.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.11.2006 21.1N 115.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190508