** WTSR20 WSSS 180600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 181430 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST SAT NOV 18 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT EARLIER TODAY THE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER...NEW DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE OCEAN IS QUITE WARM...IT AINT ALL ABOUT THE OCEAN. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SERGIO RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAIN OR RESTRENGTHEN SERGIO BUT THIS SOLUTION IS HARD TO ACCEPT AT THIS TIME WITH THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR. THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF...UNEXPECTETLY...THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT. SERGIO APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE HAS MATERIALIZED AND THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE SERGIO ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.2N 104.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 15.8N 104.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 105.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTPZ21 KNHC 181430 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1500 UTC SAT NOV 18 2006 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.8N 104.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 105.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 104.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ** WTNT80 EGRR 181649 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.11.2006 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 103.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212006 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.11.2006 15.2N 103.3W MODERATE 00UTC 19.11.2006 16.3N 105.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.11.2006 15.9N 106.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2006 16.8N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2006 17.4N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.11.2006 18.2N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.11.2006 19.6N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.11.2006 21.1N 112.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.11.2006 22.3N 112.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.11.2006 22.1N 113.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 23.11.2006 22.3N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.11.2006 22.5N 112.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.11.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181649